We have a must-bet NBA prop for tonight’s massive thirteen-game slate. We’re locking in on a breakout star at home as one of our favorite NBA props for Tuesday night’s action.
The Brooklyn Nets are hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves — tipoff is at 7:30 ET. With a two-game lead on Miami, the Nets are just two wins away from clinching a playoff spot and avoiding the play-in. After a day of rest yesterday, I’m expecting a full workload for Mikal Bridges tonight.
Brooklyn’s midseason acquisition has been one of the league’s best late-season stories. Only Joel Embiid has scored more total points than Bridges since the all-star break, and this scoring rampage is no fluke. There’s immense value in his scoring props this evening.
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NBA Props for Tuesday (4/4)
Mikal Bridges Over 26.5 Points (-125 @ DraftKings)
Mikal Bridges‘ growth as a scorer has been incredible to see over the last few months. During his time in Phoenix this season, he was the team’s third option behind both Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. And, last season, he was the team’s fourth option at many points in the season, as he shared the court with Chris Paul as well.
However, he’s the go-to guy for a new-look Nets roster. He’s taken at least 16 shots in twelve consecutive games, averaging 20.4 FGA per game during this stretch. Since the all-star break, Bridges has enjoyed legitimate first-option-level usage.
The former Suns forward only has a pair of Nets teammates that have taken more than eight shots per game during this stretch. He is a real breakout star for a Brooklyn team fighting to get into the postseason and his usage reflects that.
Recent Dominance
Bridges has cashed this over in six consecutive games. He’s posted 33.7 PPG over these last two weeks, leading the Nets to a 4-2 record.
The Villanova product is the closest thing in the NBA to an “iron man” right now. He’s never missed a game due to injury and is on pace to play 83 games this season, thanks to the timing of his trade to the Nets. He’s nearly guaranteed to see 36 to 40 minutes of action in games that stay close. And with just a 2-point spread against the T-Wolves tonight, Mikal should see his usual workload.
The fifth-year pro has reached this over in 12 of his last 16 games when seeing 30-plus minutes of action, averaging 30.7 PPG on 20.4 FGA during these contests. He’s also scored at least 23 points in 18 of 19 games seeing 30-plus minutes since being traded to Brooklyn.
This consistent scoring has been kept afloat by a giant increase in trips to the free-throw line. Bridges’ 37.1% free throw rate (6.9 attempts per game) on the Nets is a huge step up from his 22.8% FTR (3.1 attempts per game) in 56 games with Phoenix this season. Even if he shoots poorly from the field tonight, his ability to get to the line keeps this play alive.
Matchup
Minnesota ranks 6th in the NBA in Pace this season, which should create some extra possessions for Bridges and the Nets. Plus, they’ve allowed opposing number-one options to go nuts over the last couple of months.
The T-Wolves have allowed an opposing player to score at least 25 points in 21 straight games. They’ve also conceded over 26.5 points to an opponent in 20 of these 21 games. This includes a 34-point game that Minnesota allowed to Bridges himself just a few weeks ago, where he shot 13-of-24 from the field, with 31 of his points coming in regulation.
Conclusion
Mikal Bridges has been remarkably efficient, regardless of how much volume he’s taken on with the Nets. He’ll look to extend his streak of games with at least 27 points to seven straight at home against the Timberwolves tonight.
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