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NBA Props for Tonight (9/17): Betting Daniel Theis Points Total

  • Our NBA props for tonight key in on Daniel Theis points total of Over/Under 9.5 
  • He and the Celtics head into Game 2 against the Miami Heat — tip-off at 7:00 ET
  • Boston trails the series 1-0 but comes in as 2.5-point favorites in a game with a 209.5-point total

Theis was an absolute non-factor in Game 1, putting up just four points. How does he bounce back in Game 2 versus the Heat defense? Let’s jump in. 

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NBA Props for Tonight (9/17)

Celtics Center Daniel Theis

Under 9.5 Points (-128 @ Prop Builder)

Note: This is still a play for us at Under 9 points if/when it moves there. 

Theis has scored fewer than 10 points in eight-of-12 games in the postseason. Versus the Raptors, he went over this total three-of-seven times and against the 76ers, one-of-four.

Theis scored four points in Game 1 versus the Heat, and now averages 8.2 PPG in four meetings with them after recording 8, 10, and 11 points in the three regular-season meetings. Theis was in foul trouble in Game 1, ultimately being disqualified after 35 minutes.

He averaged 5.6 field goal attempts and 9.7 points versus the Heat in the regular season. In Game 1, it was 4 points on 3 shots. At that rate, it’s hard to see Theis surpassing the double-digit mark. Miami’s defense ranks second in points per game (104.7) and fifth in points in the paint allowed (38.2).

  • Theis has averaged 9.8 points per game when he plays 30 or more minutes in the postseason
  • 7.5 PPG when he plays fewer than 30 minutes in the postseason
  • 44-of-88 (50%) from the field in the postseason in 28.0 minutes per game
  • 1-of-7 (14.2%) from three since Game 1 of the semifinals and 3-of-15 (20%) in the entire postseason

The fact that he’s fouled out twice in this postseason gives us a few more outs.  He recorded four or more fouls twice out of four games in the first round and three times in the seven-game series semifinals.

He’s played 30 or fewer minutes in 7-of-12 games during the postseason and is averaging 9.0 points across three rounds. Theis is playing on one day of rest, and during the regular season, he averaged 8.9 points per game on one day of rest and 9.3 points as the starting center. 

Overall, he isn’t a significant part of the gameplan offensively, and I’d expect Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown to be more involved in scoring with Game 2. Theis’ role with this team will start to shift to rebounding and defense once Gordon Hayward comes back, and for this tough-nosed defensive series, 

I’d play this number down to -140. 

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