- Our NBA Playoff Props for tonight hail from Tuesday’s (9/22) playoff matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets
- Nikola Jokic headlines our favorite look, as we break down his Over/Under of 1.5 Three-Pointers
- The Lakers are 6.5-point favorites in a game with a total of 214 points
LA holds a 2-0 series lead, and Jokic will be desperate to get his team on the board after two lackluster performances. The big man will need to play a pivotal role if Denver has any hopes of a comeback, so let’s jump in on my favorite angle for this one.
Since the restart, I’m 5-3 on article plays; overall, I’m 27-17 for our Bet the Prop clients. And we hit our free Lebron James play comfortably last time out, so let’s hope for more of the same tonight.
Editor’s Note: Don’t miss out on our red hot start on NFL Props — 64% win rate for a 24% ROI through Week 2.
NBA Playoff Props for Tonight (9/22)
Nuggets Center Nikola Jokic
Under 1.5 Three-Point Field Goals Made (+126 @ Fan Duel)
Also available: Under 1.5 Three-Point Field Goals Made (+122 @ Draft Kings)
Jokic enters this series on the back of one of his finest seasons from beyond the arc.
Coming in, he’s averaging 1.1 three-pointers made, from 3.5 attempts per game (31.4 FG%). During this 16-game playoff run, he’s managed to up the ante in both volume and efficiency, making 2.4 threes on 5.5 attempts per game, shooting a ridiculous 44.0% from deep.
Specifically, Jokic has skewed towards deeper shot selection — threes have accounted for 29.2% of his attempts in the playoffs, as opposed to 23.8% during the regular season.
On the back of his recent form, the bookmakers have set tonight’s three-point line to 1.5. However, there is reason to believe that he may fall short of that figure tonight.
Lake Show Shut Down
Recency aside, Jokic has struggled to score from three-point land against the Lakers, who are among the best at defending from deep.
- Lakers allow 11.7 3PG at a rate of 35.1%, eighth-best
- Against opposition centers, the Lakers are ranked ninth in defending three-pointers, giving up only 0.58 made 3PG
- In his six matches against them this season, Jokic has averaged just 1.0 three-pointers and failed to clear tonight’s line in all but two of the encounters
Shot selection has played a big role. In this series, Jokic appears to be more content with scoring his points closer to the bucket, attempting just 11.8% of his total shots from beyond the arc (4 of 34), a far cry from the 29.2% post-season figure I mentioned earlier.
Conclusion
Once again, I’ll be anticipating Jokic to plant himself inside and closer to the bucket against Anthony Davis and co.
Even if he does jack up some threes, it may be more reasonable to expect him to shoot closer to his below-league average of 31.4% from deep, than to maintain the absurd 44.0% rate he’s been trending at recently. As such, I’m happy to take a shot at the under line here at a juicy price.
At this line of 1.5, I would pay as much as +100.
