We’ve got more MNF props on top our favorite Over/Unders, and for this prop we turn our focus to the fantasy realm and the outlook for Case Keenum against an elite Bears defense.
Let’s not waste any time. We hit our fantasy prop the last time out on Thursday Night Football (at +250 no less!), so let’s finish the week strong with our best MNF prop play for fantasy.
Broncos QB Case Keenum
Under 16.5 Fantasy Points (-115 at PointsBet)
The first thing to consider when betting fantasy props is your scoring settings. In the case of the PointsBet book, they go with ESPN standard settings:
Keenum is off to a surprisingly strong start this year, amassing 601 passing yards and a 5:0 TD:INT ratio in two games versus the Eagles and Cowboys.
Against Philadelphia, he scored 27.2 fantasy points (380 yards = 15.2 pts & 3TDs = 12 pts). Versus Dallas, he had 16.7 points (221 yards = 8.84 pts and 2TDs = 8 pts). So he’s 2/2 in beating this line, but he’s facing one of the top defenses in the league tonight.
- The Bears haven’t allowed an opponent to score more than 20 points in seven straight
- Over their past 13 (including the postseason), they’ve allowed just 12 passing TDs and have 19 interceptions
- They also rank sixth in the NFL this season in yards per pass attempt allowed at 6.2
Editor’s note: Our props are hitting at over 65% this year, and weekly subscriptions are available starting at $5!
In 2018, the Bears allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs (12.9 PPG) and have given up the ninth-fewest this year (14.3 PPG). In Week 1, they limited Aaron Rodgers to 12.9 points; then Joe Flacco to 15.7 in Week 2.
I’m expecting more of the same Keenum. He has yet to turn over the ball this year, but he had 18 turnovers in 16 games last year. They’re going to come at some point, so why not tonight against this Bears defense?
Oddsmakers have him currently at -195 to throw at least one interception.
The pace of play rates to be slow as well. The Bears run the 23rd-most plays per game, while the Redskins are slower at 27th-most. Oddsmakers agree and have the over/under set at 41 points. Washington’s team total sits at a lowly 17 points, inferring that they’ll struggle to put some points on the board.
Our projections currently have him slated for 13.2 – 15.4 fantasy points, creating some value on under 16.5. Keenum is going to need multiple touchdowns and play turnover-free ball to beat us tonight.
In 2018, he only had six multi-TD games, and he scored more than 16.5 fantasy points in three of 16 (18.75%).
Case Keenum’s 2018 game log wasn’t loaded with fantasy goodness.