NFL Monday Night Football
Analysing Aaron Rodgers pass+rush line, it seems like a very high line to me for the following reasons:
- Aaron is 40 years old
- Didn’t play last season
- Is coming back from a serious injury
- Didn’t play in preseason
- Relies heavily on mobility in the pass game
- Has a top defense
- Should be in a near-neutral game script
- Has near-zero live game reps with the roster
- Is facing a solid pass defense
- Is under this line in 14 of his last 20 games
I can’t think of a single reason to take the over. 🤷♂️
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San Francisco Defense Breakdown:
- Allowed the 14th most pass yards per game last season (221 yards/game; 210/home)
- However, they allowed only 6.0 yards/attempt, ranked 5th in the league
- Their 14-6 record last season often forced opponents into positive passing yard game scripts
- Coming off a Super Bowl loss, which often leads to a “hangover” season
- Tumultuous preseason with contract issues, etc.
Opening Weekend Trends:
📉 So far on NFL opening weekend, 22/30 QBs are under their passing yard lines, most by a significant margin. 📉 6/9 quarterbacks who didn’t play preseason snaps are under their passing yards line, all by considerable margins:
- Goff: 217
- Dak: 179
- Watson: 169
- Herbert: 144
- Cousins: 155
- Murray: 162
Overs were Stafford (317), Hurts (278), and Jackson (273).
The Stats:
Rodgers is lined at 2.5 rushing yards, which I don’t think he covers—he’s under in 12 of his last 20 games before injury. His passing yards are lined at 232.5, so by playing both passing and rushing yards, we squeeze a couple of extra yards in our favor. 💡 His passing u232.5 is a fine alternative.
I think this adds up to a solid play on Aaron Rodgers under this total tonight.
1u | Aaron Rodgers Under 236.5 Passing and Rushing Yards (-110) @ Bet365, (-115) @ DK/MGM
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