- Our Monday Night Football props slate offers up this free, feature play on A.J. Brown’s receiving line when the Titans visit Denver as 3-point favorites
- Brown busted out as a rookie to the tune of 1,051 receiving yards, good for 21st among all WRs despite ranking just 47th in targets
- We’re 18-7 (72%) for +10.43 units in Week 1 — join us here to get our weekly winning NFL prop slates alerted to your device
This line of 56.5 receiving yards may be the lowest we see on Brown all year.
While we probably won’t see his lines creep up to the mid-70s in the weeks ahead, mid-to-low 60s are likely to be the standard going forward, so we’ll take advantage of this pricing while we can.
Sunday’s feature play for the main slate fell just short while our SNF prop cashed with ease. Let’s finish the week off right.
Titans WR A.J. Brown
Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-112 @ DraftKings)
Brown went over this number eight times in 16 games last year, catching fire to close out the regular season.
He averaged 100.8 yards on 6.5 targets over his final six regular season games while going over his yardage prop total in five of those six.
From Week 12 to Week 17 last year, Brown:
- Lead all WRs in yards (605)
- 11th in air yards (573)
- Earned 38% of team air yards, 10th best
- 9th in target share (26%)
His line reached a peak of 69.5 yards in Week 16 last year. That number was probably a bit too high at the time, and this 56.5 is probably a bit too low now, so here we are on the more reasonable ground looking to profit.
It should be noted that Brown put up yardage totals of 4, 9, & 51 in three playoff games, and that’s probably why today’s line is on the low side. He can be boom-or-bust, but a true breakout seems inevitable.
Why not kick off the coronation against the Broncos?
Their once-feared pass rush will be shooting blanks with Vonn Miller on the IR (ankle), and Bradley Chubb’s status (ACL) in doubt, not to mention the loss of DE Derek Wolfe. Pro Bowl CB Chris Harris always presented matchup concerns for any opposing WR, but he left for the Chargers in free agency.
Newly acquired CB A.J. Bouye has historically been a tough matchup but is coming off a brutal season which saw him give up 1.48 yards per route covered, 15th-worst among all CBs per PFF.
Ryan Tannehill should have a clean pocket from which to feed Brown 5-6 targets, and the sophomore’s 13.6 average depth of target combined with elite efficiency can take care of the rest.
Conclusion
Projections don’t make this one particularly close, pegging Brown at between 70-82 yards.
That may be a touch aggressive as well, but at 56.5 we don’t need nearly that much.
I would play this number up to 59.5.
