Analyzing the longest FG prop
A cornucopia of math backs up this play💡
- NFL 35/39 successful FG from 50+ in 2024 thru 31 games (89.7%)
- NFL 22/31 games in 2024 have seen a successful 50+ yard FG (71%)
- Atlanta defense allowed 6 FG in Week 1
- Atlanta defense allowed 2.3 FG/game in 2023 (31st) {league median 1.7}
- Philly D allowed 3 FG in week 1
- Philly D allowed 1.4 FG/game in 2023 (8th)☣️
- Atlanta kicker Koo 1.9 FG/game 2023
- Philly kicker Elliot 1.7 FG/game 2023
Koo a 46+ in 7/L18 | Elliot 46+ in 7/L19
Probability Math of a ‘no’ for the game:
Koo 11/18 ‘no’ x Elliot 12/19 ‘no’ =
= 58% x 63% = 36.5% ‘no’ for game which means a 63.5% chance of ‘yes’ | line is -115 which implies 53.5% yes so great line value here
Other notes📝:
- I think AJ Brown being out helps us, takes a WR1, a deep threat, and a chain mover out of the game, perhaps fractionally leading to additional long FG attempts
- Game is outside on hybrid turf-grass, not as ideal as a dome but winds look calm tonight and I don’t expect either element to factor much
- Articles I found from 2023 and 2024 from @CBSSports and @SportsGrid both list these kickers in the top 10 as far as leg strength and accuracy💡🦾
1u | ATL/PHI Over 45.5 Longest FG -115 (Bet365, o46.5 DK)
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