We’ve made a sport of fading Justin Fields in his first season, and we’re going back to the well tonight as we break down one of our top MNF props for Bears Vikings.
Fields could actually be in store for an efficient outing against a Vikings defense that is vulnerable to the deep ball, but we expect his volume to be limited, and that’s where we turn our focus tonight.
Our NFL props are 10-5 going into MNF and hitting 61.3% on the year. We’re heating up with a 69% win rate over the past month, and there’s still time to join us and profit down the stretch run.
Let’s jump in.
MNF Props for Bears Vikings
Justin Fields Under 30.5 Passing Attempts (-114 @ FanDuel)
Fields has flashed at times in his rookie season, both on the ground and through the air, but one thing consistently lacking is volume.
The Bears don’t like to pass, doing so only when totally necessary. Chicago owns the seventh-lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) on the year, and they’ve passed at, or below, expected levels in every game this year.
Heck, even ol’ run-loving Pete Carroll has passed above expectation on occasion this year. Not the Bears.
The end result is that Fields has only eclipsed this number twice in his nine starts, with a median result of 27 attempts. Both times he went over, it was just 32 attempts — one of those came against Tampa Bay, which is the league’s biggest pass-funnel, and the other in comeback mode against the Packers. And even in that game, the Bears needed to recover a late, lucky onside kick in order for Fields to go over.
With the Vikings coming in as -6.5 favorites, it’s possible that Fields is playing from behind again tonight. However, there are reasons to believe that both teams want to play a slow, run-heavy game.
Run the Damn Ball
You can see from the charts above that the Vikings have also passed at, or below, expectations in every game this year, leading to a -2% PROE overall.
That sets up well against a Bears defense that ranks 26th in the league in Expected Points Added (EPA) allowed per rush, while also ranking 26th in run defense grade.
Dalvin Cook is heating up, coming off a 200-yard game last week, and he’ll be licking his chops tonight with the Bears missing two starters on the defensive line tonight, with Eddie Goldman and Mario Edwards both hitting the COVID list.
On the other side, we know the Bears want to run as well, and they should be able to do so successfully against a Vikings that ranks dead-last in the league in EPA allowed per rush.
It’s no surprise then that teams are shifting +2% against the run when playing the Vikings.
The body of evidence suggests that both teams will build their game plans around the run tonight, leaving little opportunity for Fields, who has barely sniffed this number on the season regardless.
We’d play it down to -130, and at 29.5, we’d downgrade it to a half-unit play.