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MLB Strikeout Props (4/13): Can You Smell a Senzatela Strikeout?

We’re back with more MLB strikeout props, keying in on one of baseball’s best… when it comes to hitting the bats, Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela.

Never known as a strikeout specialist, Senzatela is struggling to produce swings and misses more than ever, and things won’t get any easier against a dangerous Dodgers lineup today. Let’s jump in.

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MLB Strikeout Props (4/13)

Rockies RHP Antonio Senzatela

Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130 BetMGM)

Senzatela is 0-2 to this number, including two strikeouts against these Dodgers in the opener.

He gave up 7 ERs through 3.1 innings in that one before rebounding in his second start, efficiently dealing with the Diamondbacks while pitching a shutout through 8 innings on 97 pitches.

Despite all that volume, he still just struck out 3 batters, bringing his total through two starts to five.

It seems the 26-year old can still be an effective starter, but he continues to do it via the ground ball over strikeouts.

Chart courtesy Fan Graphs

Senzatela’s 81.8% contact rate is 16th-highest among 128 qualified pitchers. If you’re wondering, Shane Bieber stands alone at the other end of the spectrum with the lowest contact rate among starters at 51.6%.

  • Coming off kRates of 13.5% last year, and 13.1% the year before, Senzatela’s strikeout rate through two starts sits at 10.2%
  • Batters are chasing his pitches 10% of the time, which ranks in the bottom 1st percentile in baseball
  • He was 8-4 to the under on this number last year

Dodgers Double Up

The Champs are running it back with a monster lineup that ranks top-three in a bunch of categories, including BA (1st), OBP (1st), SLG (3rd), OPS (2nd), and Runs Created (1st).

And they do it all with plate discipline.

  • The Dodgers own the fifth-best kRate in the majors at 20.8%
  • Their swinging-strike rate, which is predictive of strikeouts, is third-best at 17.1%
  • All pitchers facing them are going under their strikeout prop 77.8% of the time this year
  • Six of seven RHPs to face the Dodgers have gone under on their prop total


Dealing with low lines like 3.5 is always going to invite more variance, but finding four against Ks the Dodgers big ask for Senzatela, who seems to be relying on ground balls more than ever.

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