Best Bets – NFL TNF Kick Return Prop Writeup
It’s a dream matchup for these two kicking props on Thursday Night Football. Both teams feature rookie kickers with impressive touchback rates:
- Rams rookie Joshua Karty (Stanford): 96% Touchback rate (#1) | 100% at home (#1)
- Vikings rookie Will Reichard (Alabama): 86% Touchback rate (#4) | 82% on the road (#9)
This game will be played on turf in the controlled environment of the beautiful Sofi Stadium in LA, perfect for kicking 💡
Both teams have played 6 games, and 11/12 of those have gone under these respective props. In Week 2, the Rams were forced to return 3 short kicks by the Packers’ rookie Brayden Narveson, who has since been cut ✂️
Additional Note:
- Rams coach Sean McVay seems determined to eliminate the randomness of the Kickoff Return, as the Rams rank #1 in offensive touchbacks at 84%.
The Numbers:
- With a game total of 48, we can expect about ~9.3 scores in this game.
- 9.3 scores translate to just under 11.3 kickoffs, accounting for walk-offs.
- Conservatively, we project an 85% Touchback Rate.
- 11.3 x (1 – 0.85) = 1.7 expected returns.
- Using Poisson statistical calculations, the under 2.5 returns has a ~75% probability, yet the line is -110 ✅
- Combined, these teams have 1 kick return over 29.5 yards in 10 attempts.
- 1.7 returns x 10% = 0.17 expected returns over 29.5 yards.
- Poisson projection of the longest return under 29.5 yards is 84%, line is -110 ✅
The Bets:
1.5u | MIN/LAR ⬇️ u29.5 Longest Kick Return -110 {DraftKings}
1u | MIN/LAR ⬇️ u2.5 Kick Returns -110 {DraftKings}
Give these plays a look on DraftKings for Thursday Night Football 🤝
