Opening Day approaches, and we’ve got you covered, kicking things off with three of our favorite MLB HR props for the 2022 baseball season.
This will be our fourth season giving out MLB props. Time flies when you’re printing. All three of our previous years have been winners, and we’ve gone 556-378 (59.5%) for +115.17 Units (all flat 1-unit — no bet sizing tricks here) over the years. You can find detailed tracking for all our sports here.
Join us and get all our MLB props, along with +EV picks for NBA, PGA, F1, and more.
Let’s jump into a few of our favorite MLB HR Props for this season.
Eugenio Suarez (SEA) Under 33.5 Home Runs, -110 DK
Line Notes: Good to -135; would play down to U32.5 HRs
First of all, this line is currently set at 29.5 HRs at one fairly sharp offshore book. That means one of those lines is wrong, and it’s pretty clear which one.
Suarez has played five full seasons – all in the NL – and hit this number in two of them, the last time back in 2019.
Now he’s entering his age-31 season and is on the wrong end of the MLB’s historical aging curve.
We started to see the power numbers dip a bit last year, and now he also faces the added challenge of switching over to the AL, which means less familiarity with the pitching.
Suarez’s expected BA was in the bottom-fifth percentile last year, and his actual BA was below the Mendoza line (.198), while he struck out nearly 30% of the time.
With an Outs Above Average in the bottom-first percentile in all of baseball last year, Suarez was truly a liability at the plate, and if that form spills over to this year, it could be tough to stay in the lineup all season, which could give us a few extra potential outs as well.
This number is just too high.
Kris Bryant (COL) Under 30.5 HRs (-110 FD, -115 DK)
Line Notes: Good to -125; half-unit at 29.5.
This is a pure projection play. Yes, Bryant’s power numbers get a boost by the move to the thin air of Colorado this year, but this is still an aggressive number that he’s hit just twice in his career (one of them by the hook).
The 30-year old has battled all kinds of injuries over the last few years, and projections are pretty bearish on Bryant, despite his new surroundings.
Kris Bryant’s 2022 HR Projections
- ZiPS: 27
- Streamer600: 25
- The Bat: 29
- The BAT X: 26
Bryant’s aggregate projection is 3.7 HRs short of the line, one of the biggest edges on the board this year. We ride.
Wander Franco (TB) Under 21.5 HRs (-110 DK)
Line Notes: Would play to 20.5.
Franco is a freaky, switch-hitting, 21-year old who projects to be a full-time player for the Rays this year.
His production as a 20-year old rookie SS was impressive, but at 5-10, 189-pounds, his power is probably the least impressive of his many hitting tools.
He hit 7 dingers in 308 ABs across 70 games as a rookie. Even if we assume a fully healthy 145 games and a reasonable increase HR efficiency, it’s tough to get him to 22 home runs.
It’s possible, but it’s certainly in the high end of his range of outcomes. A median projection of 18-20 seems much more reasonable, and that’s the highest projection I can find for Franco across the industry is just 19 HRs.