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Magic in Minnesota: 2 NFL Props for Week 16

An exciting Week 16 NFL slate lies ahead, and we’ve found some compelling angles on two NFL Props for Week 16.

For a Christmas weekend NFL slate, we’re locking in on one exciting matchup for these two plays.

My Bet The Prop article plays are 18-12 so far this NFL season after going 1-1 in this space last week.

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For this week’s main slate, we’re taking a look at a matchup that could provide some magic in Minnesota. Let’s dive into the plays!

NFL Props for Week 16 (12/26)

Matthew Stafford Over 280.5 Passing Yards (-110 @ FanDuel)

Matthew Stafford has had a great first season in Los Angeles thus far. His 35 passing touchdowns and 295.9 yards per game have him squarely in the top-three in the NFL in each category.

Success with the Rams

Head Coach Sean McVay is not afraid to let Stafford air it out frequently. The Rams’ 61% Pass Rate ranks top-10, and it only drops to 57% when they’re tied or leading, good for sixth-highest. Stafford is posting the fourth-highest YPG total in his 13-year NFL career and is in a great spot to keep rolling in Week 16.

The former first-overall pick out of Georgia has thrown for at least 275 yards in 11 of 14 games this season. He has reached the over on this line in six of his last eight games, averaging 288 YPG during this stretch.

Stafford's 2021 Game Log.
Stafford’s 2021 Game Log.

Stafford is showing no signs of slowing down despite playing through a variety of injuries this season. After leading the Rams to back-to-back wins within the division, a matchup against the Vikings offers a perfect spot for him to pop in Week 16.


The Minnesota Vikings have struggled mightily against the pass in 2021. They’re allowing 272.4 YPG through the air, good for the third-highest mark in the NFL behind only the Seahawks and Ravens.

The Vikes have allowed the over on this passing line in four of their last five outings, as shown here:

Completions, Attempts, and Passing Yards for the last 5 QB's to face Minnesota.
Completions, Attempts, and Passing Yards for the last 5 QB’s to face Minnesota.

Jared Goff, Ben Roethlisberger, and Justin Fields have been among the least efficient starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season. Each of these three performances against Minnesota ranked as top-three yardage marks for each quarterback in 2021. Now consider Stafford, who has six 300-plus yard performances in 2021, tied for third-most in the NFL.

The Vikings are giving up the second-highest yards per completion and the fourth-highest yards per attempt after ranking bottom five in each department last season, too.

Stafford and the Rams have a terrific opportunity to go nuts against one of the NFL’s worst coverage units. Look for the NFL’s third-leading passer to throw for around 300 yards in an awesome spot this Sunday.

Alexander Mattison Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-115 @ DraftKings)

Alexander Mattison has made a strong case to be considered the NFL’s best backup running back. If starter Dalvin Cook goes down, the Minnesota offense hardly misses a beat. The 23-year-old Mattison is still in just his third season, yet has the full trust of Mike Zimmer and the Vikings coaches.

Mattison has played at least half the snaps in five games over the last two seasons. He is undoubtedly in a workhorse role without Cook. Minnesota’s RB2 even averaged an unbelievable 27.2 touches per game as a starter.

Mattison's receiving game log when playing at least half of Minnesota's RB snaps.
Mattison’s receiving game log when playing at least half of Minnesota’s RB snaps.

The talented running back has totaled at least 34 receiving yards in each of the last four games Cook has missed. Mattison is averaging a whopping 45.3 YPG through the air in these four games, which is more than twice the line that sportsbooks have blessed us with.


The Rams present a solid matchup for Mattison’s pass-catching potential this weekend. They’re less than two weeks removed from allowing James Conner to rack up 9 catches for 94 yards. The Rams are giving up 5.4 receptions per game (12th most) and 40.1 yards per game (14th most) to opposing running backs this season.

Opponents have to throw against Los Angeles to sustain successful drives. They’re one of the NFL’s top-level run defenses for the second consecutive year, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry (T-3rd least) and 99.1 rushing YPG (6th least). This should force Minnesota into a more pass-happy game plan, which should lock Mattison into another three-plus catch performance.

Mattison has a 16.1% target share in his three starts this season. This should put him on track for 5-6 targets against a Rams defense forcing opponents to throw more than 37 times per game. Look for one of the NFL’s most underrated playmakers to have a nice day as a receiver in Dalvin Cook’s absence on Sunday.


Matthew Stafford is in a perfect spot to dice up a reeling Vikings secondary this weekend. He’s enjoying a great season in his first as a member of the Rams and should be able to continue his streak of strong performances in a road contest in Minnesota.

Meanwhile, Alexander Mattison will have a massive role in Week 16. The Rams’ pass-funnel defense should create plenty of opportunities for Mattison to make a major impact as a receiver in this NFC showdown.

Enjoy playing these NFL props for Week 16, and join us for the final weeks of the NFL season!

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