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Lou Williams Props: Pouring on the Points in Game 1?

  • Lou Williams props are on the docket in our look at the best NBA props for tonight (9/3) 
  • He and the Clippers are looking to grab Game 1 in their best-of-seven playoff series against the Nuggets — tip-off at 9:00 ET
  • Our NFL Early Bird Special is Here! Save 20% on a full season of NFL props (60% in 2020) and get access to every sport, including our MLB props hitting at 66%

Lou Williams faces off against a familiar opponent in the Nuggets. He shot 47% or better in all three meetings against Denver this year, one of the worst shot-defending defenses in the playoffs.

Can Williams pour on the offense in the opener?

We cashed last night’s play easily and are 3-0 on free article plays on the week, so let’s stay hot.  

NBA Props for Tonight (9/3)

Clippers Guard Lou Williams

Over 16.5 Points (-114 @ Prop Builder, -121 @ DraftKings)

This line is deceiving, in my opinion. I saw a Lou Williams PRA line of 25.5, which means books expecting Williams to post eight-to-nine rebounds and assists? Or are they planning on Williams to score at a high-rate tonight after only playing 39 total minutes in two combined games thanks to blowouts?

Williams and the Clippers have been off since Sunday, and when he has three days of rest or more, he’s averaged 21.6 points, and 2.4 made threes on 5.7 attempts (42.5%) this season. He averaged 27.0 minutes in the first round, and when he played 26 or more, he averaged 20.5 points versus Dallas.

  • Williams has scored 17, 23, and 26 points in three meetings with Denver in 2019-20
  • Williams has scored 17 or more points in two of the last three games he surpassed 30 minutes played

The Nuggets are allowing 113.4 points per game (11th), 39.9 field goals made (10th), and their opponent’s to make 48.7% (15th) from the field per game in the postseason. 

Williams only went over this total in two-of-six games versus Dallas, but he barely played because the series wasn’t as close as the 4-2 finish seemed. He attempted 11.2 shots per game, and in the three games he did play 30 minutes, he averaged 14.3 shot attempts and 24.3 points per game in the first round. 

With three days off, I like Williams to find his scoring groove, and with Patrick Beverly back focusing on defense and locking up Jamal Murray, the offense opens up for Lou-WIll. He averaged 16 points in the first round, and as the postseason goes on, I expect Williams to get better and better, especially versus an exploitable Nuggets defense.  

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