Actual, real-life player props? On a Wednesday? And not those lame “Michael Thomas scores the first TD” variety?
I thought I’d take this rare early opportunity to run down the lines quickly and provide some early thoughts and leans, starting with Sunday’s first game.
Check out our breakdown of the early lines for Patriots Chiefs here.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Rams QB Jared Goff
Passing Yards O/U 289.5
Lean: Over (-110)
While Goff has faded down the stretch, averaging 283 passing yards per game in the second half of the season compared to 303 yards in the first half, he did put up 391 yards in his first matchup with the Saints this year.
New Orleans has been playing improved pass defense of late, but they’ve still allowed more passing yards than all but two teams.
Not a slam dunk here, but leaning over based on the shootout potential.
Passing TDs O/U 2
Lean: Over (+120)
Goff tossed for a TD troika against the Saints in Week 9.
I’d lean over based on the plus odds we’re getting and the fact that 2 is a push, meaning the only way we lose is in the somewhat unlikely event that he scores one or fewer TDs.
Rams RB Todd Gurley
Rushing Yards: Over/Under 72.5 (-105)
Lean: Under
This is one of the most fascinating spots of the weekend, as the elite Todd Gurley faces the NFL’s best run defense by total yards allowed.
Gurley hit 68 yards on 13 carries in their first matchup for a 5.2 YPC mark that was among the best efficiency marks anyone posted against the Saints this year.
And with CJ Anderson stealing work (23 carries to Gurley’s 16 last week), a full workload is no guarantee.
I’m leaning under, especially at near-even odds.
Total TDs O/U 0.5
Lean: No play
I don’t see any value at the -150 number on a Gurley TD, and I’m also not betting against Gurley to score a TD.
Rams WR Robert Woods
Receiving Yards O/U 72.5
Lean: Under or No Play (-110)
Woods finishes a lot of games around right this number, and I think the total is about as sharp as they come in the prop game. I don’t see a a lot of value here either way.
However, I will definitely be looking at the over on Woods’ receptions prop when it’s released.
Rams WR Brandin Cooks
Receiving Yards O/U 76.5
Lean: Under
While Cooks did previously burn the Saints for 114 yards, he hasn’t had more than 65 yards or six receptions since mid-November.
Saints QB Drew Brees
Pass Completions O/U 25.5
Lean: Under
Drew Brees averages 22.8 pass completions per game, while the Rams allow an average of 21.6.
Even down two TDs early against the Eagles last, Brees still only had a relatively modest 28 completions, and in that 80-point shootout versus the Rams in Week 9 he had just 25 completions.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara
Rushing Yards O/U 62.5
Lean: Over
The Rams allowed 102 rushing yards per game this season, including a 19-82 yard line against Kamara.
The electric sophomore had 16 rushes playing from behind last week, and there’s a strong chance he sees at least that many again this week.
Saints WR Michael Thomas
Receiving Yards O/U 92.5
Lean: Over
Thomas is coming off a 12-catch, 171-yard clinic against the Eagles, his third-highest yardage output of the season.
His biggest output of the season? A 12-catch 211 yard monster against, you guessed it, the LA Rams.
This line is certain to head north, so if you want to play it, giddy up while you can.
