- LeBron James props are the featured item as we dive into his total of Over/Under 10.5 for rebounds
- He and the Los Angeles Lakers look to close out the Heat in Game 6 of the NBA Finals — tip-off at 7:40 ET
- The Lakers are 6-point favorites in a game with a 214.5-point total
I’m going back to the well with a slightly different angle for Game 6. Let’s jump in as I look to win my eighth-straight for Bet the Prop.
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Lakers Forward LeBron James
Over 10.5 Rebounds (-110 @ DraftKings, or @ Prop Builder)
I thought LeBron James and the Lakers had the series wrapped in Game 5 of the NBA Finals, but Jimmy Butler and the Heat had other plans. After 40 points, 13 rebounds, and seven assists, all of LeBron’s lines have jumped except his rebounds, and it’s been one of his most profitable all postseason.
Before Game 5, LeBron’s last 10 overall NBA Finals series-clinching games, he averaged 33.6 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game.
He’s at least double-doubled in nine of those 10 games and triple-doubled in four. After Game 5, he increased his point and rebound totals, both positive signs for this prop in another series-clinching game.
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LeBron’s Game 6 History
LeBron hasn’t played in an NBA Finals Game 6 since 2016 versus the Warriors, and he dominated with 41 points, 11 assists, and eight rebounds in the middle of that epic 3-1 comeback.
In two other Game 6s dating back to 2013, LeBron recorded 32 points, 18 rebounds, and nine assists in 2015; and 32 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds in 2013. His average rebounds in his last few Finals appearances:
- 12.0 rebounds in 2016
- 11.3 in 2015
- 13.3 in 2014
- 11.4 in this Finals
Versus Miami, LeBron has grabbed 11 rebounds or more in three-of-five games, and with Anthony Davis reaggravating his heel injury, they need his rim presence even more.
If Davis isn’t himself, then LeBron could lead the Lakers or game in boards tonight. Davis has averaged 9.8 rebounds per game in the series with only two double-doubles, and I doubt he double-doubles in Game 6.
LeBron, on the other hand, is a safe bet to double-double. His odds are -500 to double-double, and the only type of double-double he’s recorded in his last six were with rebounds. How can you bet against that? LeBron has recorded more than 10 rebounds in 10-of-20 games and 10 or more in 13-of-20.
He’s posted at least one double-double in every playoff series so far, and LeBron’s averaging 11.4 in the Finals, his most of the postseason. In his last two games, he’s had 12 and 13 boards, and before that 10 in Game 3.
He’s double-doubled in three-straight games and four of five versus Miami.
Back the FInals MVP to have another solid performance on the boards and record his fifth double-double of the series and go over 10.5 rebounds versus Miami in Game 6.
I’d play this down to -130.