- Kawhi Leonard props are on the docket in our look at the best NBA prop plays for tonight, September 15th
- He and the Clippers head into Game 7 as 7.5-point favorites against the Denver Nuggets — tip-off at 9:00 ET
- Leonard’s point total is set at 30.5 after averaging 26.5 in this series
It’s win-or-go-home in this Game 7 showdown, the perfect time for the Clippers MVP to get going. I like Leonard’s over tonight, so let’s get right to it.
More NBA Props: How to play Jason Tatum in Game 1, Celtics vs. Heat.
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Clippers Forward Kawhi Leonard
Over 30.5 Points (-114 @ Prop Builder)
Over 31.5 (+105 @ DK) is also a good option.
Leonard in a Game 7 to go for 30-plus? That sounds like a solid bet considering the lasting memory of Leonard in a Game 7 versus the 76ers last year.
He scored 41 points in that one, draining the game-winner watched worldwide and sending Toronto to the Eastern Conference Finals. In his last five elimination games that ended the series, he’s scored 27, 41, 27, 22, and 33 points, in that order, dating back to the 2019 first round.
Versus Denver, he’s averaged 26.0 in the six postseason games and 25.0 in three regular-season meetings. His postseason numbers are skewed by his 13-point effort in the Clippers’ Game 2 loss. We all know he’s not going to repeat that performance in Game 7, and he’s averaging 28.6 PPG in the playoffs versus Denver without that game.
- Leonard attempted 36 shot attempts in his last Game 7, scoring 41 points versus the 76ers
- 32.0 PPG coming off a loss in the postseason since 2018-19
- 41.0 minutes/game in all Game 6 and 7s with Toronto and LA
Leonard’s averaged 30.3 PPG in his last three, and against the Nuggets, he’s gone for 30 twice and 36 once in nine games.
In Denver’s 80-78 Game 7 win over Utah, we witnessed Jokic score 30, so we know it’s possible to hit these high numbers, even in low-scoring grinding games. Paul George is a possibility too, but I like Leonard to lead the team in scoring.
In fact, he’s currently a -145 favorite to lead the game in scoring, so if you’re squeamish about taking Leonard to score 31-plus points in Game 7, that prop may be a solid alternative.