The 76ers head to Texas to take on the Mavs tonight, and I’m going to tell you how to play Joel Embiid’s PRA prop for this Friday night matchup.
I’m the NBA handicapper at Bet the Prop — I’m hitting 61% this year for +44 units this season, including a 9-1 run over the past few days. Get all my picks by joining us here.
Let’s jump into the numbers.
Joel Embiid (PHI) UNDER 48.5 PRA, -120 FanDuel
Line movement notes: Would play this number to -135. Would play U37.5 for a half unit.
- Embiid is averaging 44.3 PRA in 33.1 minutes
- He’s cleared this line in 14/39 games at a rate of 36%
- The MVP candidate has struggled a bit on the road and failed to clear our line in five of the past six road games and has struggled even more in losing efforts
- Dallas are ranked 19th for PRA against centers this season
- They haven’t met yet this season but managed to keep him under on both meetings last season (0-2)
- The Mavericks are the second-slowest team in the league, running 99.3 possessions per game, behind only the Knicks
- They’re slight favorites in this (-1.5pts), which is not so good for Embiid as he’s 0-13 in road losses over the past 2 seasons and 0-4 this season
- Another thing working in our favor is that the total for this game is only 212.0 pts – the lowest on the slate. So even if Dallas can’t get up, still not expecting a high scoring shootout