- Welcome back for a massive UFC 264 fight card! I couldn’t be more excited about this card so I thought we should drop one of our four official plays this week absolutely FREE
- This week's tipped bet covers the Main Event as the sport's biggest star Conor McGregor looks to avenge his knockout loss from January to perennial contender Dustin Poirier.
- Prelims for UFC 264 get underway tonight at 7 pm ET, and the main card starts at 10 pm ET on PPV
We’ve been hitting our stride lately rattling off four winners in a row. We’ve got three more plays for you tonight and you can unlock it all with a UFC Fight Pass for $19.
And of course, we track everything we do here at Bet the Prop. Here are my results.
UFC Best Bets for UFC 264
Conor McGregor (+110) vs Dustin Poirier (-130)
Back in January, we cashed a +250 ticket on Poirier when he knocked Conor out in the second round.
I felt like the inactivity of McGregor would come into play considering he's such a counter heavy striker. That style of fighting requires an extremely high level of timing that you only sustain at the highest levels by being active.
Conor still had a lot of success landing clean shots even with the inactivity. Seeing that performance leads me to believe he will be much sharper in the latest installment of the trilogy.
What that means is instead of singular blows to Poirier, expect to see extended combinations more frequently.
In January, the singular blows of McGregor were snapping the head of Poirier back hard. Jabs, uppercuts, and a couple of left hands all landed cleanly, but McGregor failed to follow up as he usually does. The consistent training will fix that.
I also expect McGregor to make adjustments limiting not only the leg kicks of Poirier but the counter right hand that Dustin had a ton of success with. Conor is a very high I.Q and cerebral fighter who will not make the same mistakes twice.
I expect Conor to simply be far more prepared for this bout. He'll be more cautious with his distance management, and in doing so I just don’t see Dustin being on the same level as a tuned-in McGregor if this fight is contested on the feet.
I think Conor gets into an early rhythm and never looks back. I envision him ending this fight with a fatal extended combination similar to what he did to Eddie Alvarez years ago.
Tipped Bet: Risk 1 Unit on Conor McGregor @ +110
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