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Get in on This MLB Outs Prop (8/16): Braxton Garrett vs the Braves

You’re going to want to get in on this MLB Outs prop as Marlins prospect Braxton Garrett takes on the Atlanta Braves.

Braxton is one of the top pitching prospects for the Fish, but the No 7 overall pick in the 2016 draft hasn’t lived up to billing so far.

We’re fading him in a matchup with the Braves, and we’ll break down why.

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MLB Outs Props (8/16)

Braxton Garrett Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110 @ BetMGM)

Garrett makes his eighth start for Miami after being called up from Triple-A Jacksonville in early June.

He wasn’t impressive in the minors, so it’s no surprise that he’s failing to make an impact in the majors. The highlight was a 7.0 inning, 10-strikeout gem against the Padres, but otherwise, he’s gone under this outs total in all six of his starts with a best of 4.1IP.

  • He lasts about 4.5 innings (or 13.5 outs) on average
  • Averages just 75 pitches/starts, topping out at 94
  • Walks have been a factor in those short starts, issuing at least one free pass in every game and averaging two
  • Garrett owns a 4.65 ERA this year, and his FIP of 4.05 suggests there isn’t a ton of room for improvement

All of those are bad signs when your stuff is not particularly overwhelming. Garrett’s fastball velocity ranks in the bottom 12th percentile among all qualified pitchers, while his fastball spin rate ranks in the bottom 24th percentile.

He wasn’t particularly effective in the minors either, pitching 4.92 innings on average with a 4.77 ERA.

Bet the Braves?

Atlanta presents a middling matchup for the most part, but they bring enough pop to keep the majority of opposing pitchers from going deep.

Over the last two months, starters facing the Braves are averaging 14.4 Pitching Outs, and they’ve been particularly hot of late with seven of the last eight pitchers to get a line going under their total.

Against our line of 15.5 outs, 10 of the last 14 left-handed pitchers have gone under.


Garrett hasn’t done nearly enough in either the minors or the majors to suggest that he has a 55.4% chance of hitting 16 Outs, as this line implies.

We’d take the under down to -130.

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