- Paul George props incoming as we give you two free NBA playoff props for Tuesday (8/25)
- We’ll also look at Nikola Jokic as his Nuggets take on the Jazz looking to stay alive down 3-1
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George and the Clippers are looking to tie their opening-round series at two as they take on the Mavericks at 9 ET. He’s been on a serious scoring drought, an angle again worth a look in Game 5.
That’s where we start on today’s slate before breaking down Nikola Jokic’s line of O/U 24.5 Points against the Jazz.
We went 1-1 on yesterday’s card after one of the worst stat-correction bad beats we can remember on the Bledsoe assists play. Let’s get back to our sweeping ways today.
Clippers Forward Paul George
Under 23.5 Points (-110 @ FanDuel)
George picked a bad time to sink into of his worst scoring stretches of the season, as he’s failed to hit more than 14 points in his last three.
Shooting a brutal 10-of-47 (21.2%) and 4-of-25 (16%) from downtown, he hasn’t done much outside of his perfect 13-of-13 stroke from the free-throw line.
George has made six shots combined in his past two games and is averaging 11.3 PPG over his last three. He’s the only player the only player not taking advantage of Dallas’ weak defense (125.8 PPG).
- He’s shooting 27.3% from the field and 20.8% from three through four games in the series
- Dallas ranks sixth in the postseason holding L.A. to 35.4% from beyond the arc
George played a season-high 45 minutes in their overtime loss to the Mavs, and he’s only played 40 minutes in one other game this season. His next performance following that was on one day of rest, like today, and he recorded 12 points on 5-of-10 shooting in 16 minutes, which would actually be an improvement over his current form.
I’m expecting Kawhi Leonard to continue controlling the offense and leading L.A. in scoring as George struggles to find his stroke.
I’d play this line down to 22.5, and at this current number, would pay up to -130.
Nuggets Center Nikola Jokic
Over 24.5 Points (-110 @ FanDuel)
Jokic has dominated the Jazz all season, and if the Nuggets ever needed a huge game, now is the time.
In six of seven meetings with the Jazz, Jokic has scored at least 28 points. In the postseason, he’s done it in three of four, putting up at least 21 attempts in all of them. The Joker ranks 13th in scoring with 25.3 points per game during the postseason and 11th in field goal attempts (19.8).
- In three regular-season meetings with Utah, Jokic averaged 29.3 PPG
- In four postseason meetings with Utah in 2019-20, Jokic has averaged 25.3 PPG
- When Jokic plays 40 or more minutes in 2019-20, he’s averaging 25.3 PPG
In Game 5, it’s win or go home for Denver, and Jokic has led the team in scoring twice through four games and hit the over in three of four. Between Jokic and Jamal Murray, one or both of them should score 25 points or more.
Jokic has made 10-of-25 (40%) three-pointers in the series and 39-of-79 (49.4%) while averaging 36.3 minutes. He played 39 minutes in the previous game and 42 in Game 1, and I anticipate he’ll play 39 or more in Game 5 as long as Denver avoids a blowout, which I believe they will.
I probably wouldn’t want to give away a point if it goes to 25.5, but I do like playing this 24.5 number down to -133.