Our first look at Eagles Packers props for Thursday Night Football takes us back to the world of fantasy props.
These are over/under bets on fantasy points that are available at several books, including PointsBet, DraftKings, and FanDuel.
We’re coming off a win on Case Keenum under 16.5 fantasy points on Monday Night Football thanks in large part to his five turnovers, and last Thursday I handed out a +250 winner. Today we’re eyeing another under for Thursday night, this time with Aaron Jones, a running back who suddenly finds himself smack in the middle of a backfield committee.
You can also check out of favorite “standard” Eagles Packer props for TNF here.
Packers RB Aaron Jones
Under 15.5 Fantasy Points (-115 at PointsBet)
PointsBet uses a standard ESPN (PPR) scoring system to grade these props.
Jones has put up double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back weeks coming into this game, but we have good reason to fade him here.
His stat lines through three:
- Week 1 at the Chicago Bears: 39 rushing yards on 13 carries with one catch for zero yards for 4.9 fantasy points
- Week 2 vs Minnesota Vikings: 23 carries/116 yards/TD and pitched in four receptions for 34 yards for 25 FP
- Week 3 vs Denver Broncos: 10 carries/19 yards/2 TDs and one rec/four yards for 15.3 FP
Last week, Jones played a season-low 38.6% of the snaps after playing around 59% in Weeks 1 and 2, resulting in his worst output of the year. He had 11 touches for 24 yards and was lucky to score two TDs against Denver.
He was out-snapped and out-touched by backup RB Jamaal Williams, a week after Head Coach Matt LeFleur said that he wanted to even out their touches. Scoring fantasy points is all about opportunity and it seems like Aaron Jones’ is starting to diminish.
Going into Week 4, Jones has another tough matchup versus the Philadelphia Eagles. On the season, they’ve allowed:
- The fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (55.67 ypg)
- Third-fewest rushing yards per carry (3.15 ypc)
- Fifth-fewest RB fantasy points per game (18.9)
The Eagles also rank 26th in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing QB’s which should force the Packers pass more against this defense which basically begs you to take to the air
With so much working against Jones, we just need him to not find the end zone for us to cash this under.
The Play: Aaron Jones Under 15.5 Fantasy Points. I would play this down to 14.5.
