- Our best Dolphins Jaguars props for Thursday Night Football key in on Miami’s sophomore running back Myles Gaskin
- The Jaguars (1-1) are holding steady as 3-point favorites in a game with a 44-point total against the Dolphins (0-2) after this one opened as a pick ’em
- Our NFL player props are on fire to start the year, 64% for +20 units (all 1-unit plays) — join the best in the business for full weekly slates
Myles Gaskin might be the biggest surprise on the Dolphins offense through two weeks. He’s leading the backfield in every statistical category, and I’m not sure that the betting market has quite caught on quite yet, leaving us this window of +EV opportunity.
Let’s jump in.
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Jaguars Dolphins Props for TNF
Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin
Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-122 @ FanDuel)
We played the Gaskin O2.5 Receptions (-114) when it opened late Tuesday, but that line has since heavily been juiced at most shops. Instead, we lean towards his yardage as an alternative.
Yes, it’s true that RB receiving overs are an historically bad bet. And yes, we’re coming off a loss on an RB receiving over on MNF, but hear me out.
Some carefully curated overs are still okay. And if you are going to play them, then targeting a relatively unknown player with a role that’s not yet reflected in his pricing is a good way to go.
It’s also a tiny sample, but his numbers command attention:
- Gaskin has 11 targets, tied with Ezekiel Elliott for fourth among all RBs
- His 10 catches are second behind only Alvin Kamara
- His 14% share of team targets is tied for seventh at the position
He’s the lead back for the Dolphins, at least so far, and it’s not close — Gaskin leads the backfield in every opportunity metric while completely dominating the snap share.
He’s tallied receiving yardage totals of 26 and 36 through two tough matchups against the Patriots and Bills. Now it’s a date with the Jaguars, who’ve allowed 142 receiving yards on 17 catches (8.35 YPC!) to opposing RBs, fourth- and third-worst in the league respectively.
If Gaskins continues to see nearly two out of every three snaps, increased efficiency is also in the cards against this defense.
There is always the risk that the two-game sample we’re drawing from is just that. However, one of the biggest edges we have in props is our early-season information advantage.
While Gaskin’s heavy usage could dry up, it’ seems highly unlikely given his heavy usage in the early season. This could be the last good receiving line we see on the sophomore back all season, so we’ll take advantage while we can.
I’d play this to 18.5 yards, and at the current, line, would pay up to -125. Over 2.5 Receptions is also a great play if you can find a price under -130.