- We’ve got Demar Derozan props tonight, for this Friday NBA slate (4/30)
- He and the Spurs travel to Boston to take on the Celtics — tip-off at 7:30 PM ET
- The Spurs are 4.5 point underdogs, with a game total of 221
Demar Derozan props close out the month — the last full month of the NBA regular season. With teams continuing to jockey for playoff positioning, the best players are being relied on more than they have all season, which opens up some value on the player prop front.
And my favorite play of the night focuses on just that – a star player looking to help his team make their final push to climb the Western Conference standings.
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Free NBA Player Props (4/30)
Spurs Forward Demar Derozan
Over 28.5 Points + Assists (-120 @ BetMGM)
Line available at publishing. Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists also playable.
In his third season in San Antonio, Derozan is playing some of his best basketball. Averaging 21.2 points, he’s also dishing out a career-high 7.2 assists per game, taking the mantle as the team’s leading scorer and facilitator.
As the Spurs continue to make their playoff push, the twelve-year veteran has stepped up his production over the past month, averaging 31.7 points + assists (PA) over that span. And interestingly enough, Derozan’s usage has also increased as the season has trudged on, with a 28.1 rate in April.
It might be stating the obvious, but Derozan’s best chance to exceed this PA line will come with a close game. In the last 26 games in which the Spurs have played their opponents within plus/minus 15 points (i.e. a 30 point window), the point forward has averaged 33.2 P+A, eclipsing this total 73% of the time. With a point spread of 4.5, and the Celtics without point guard Kemba Walker, I’m liking the chance for tonight’s matchup to remain tight.
The Matchup
Speaking of the Celtics, they’ve been a slightly above-average defensive team this season. However, versus similar forwards, Boston has shown vulnerability of late Players profiling relatively similar to Derozan’s style, Miles Bridges (twice), Michael Porter Jr., and Anthony Edwards, have all exceeded their scoring average versus the Celtics in recent weeks. All showcased their ability to get to the basket, which is Derozan’s offensive forte.
Additionally, in their last ten games, Boston has allowed the fourth-most assists, at 27.1 per contest. With Derozan ramping up his average to 8.3 assists over the last 10 games, this coincides as a nice spot for him to keep dishing the rock.
Conclusion
It’s not an A+ matchup for the USC product, but it isn’t one that’s prohibitive. This line sits right on his season average, but a full three PA south of his production over the last month.
The Spurs are in must-win mode – they currently sit ninth in the Western Conference. With the eighth seed holding a lot more weight for the play-in tournament, it benefits San Antonio to strive to move up the standings. Given this, I see the Spurs continuing to rely on their best player and playoff-tested veteran. I have Derozan projected at 31 P+A tonight.
