Now that many of the over/unders have been released, it’s time to attack the Week 4 player prop lines, and we start by fading the one of the most putrid passing attacks in pro football.
Dak Prescott vs Detroit
Under 199.5 Passing Yards
2 Units to win 1.74 Units
The Cowboys have scored the second-fewest points in the league and the thrown the second-fewest passing yards.
Prescott’s passing totals on the year so far are: 170, 160, 168. He’s gone under 200 yards passing in 10 of his last 12 games.
Now he gets a Lions defense which has yielded fewer passing yards than any team in the league with an average of 179 per game.
Kelvin Benjamin vs Green Bay
Under 40.5 Yards
1 Unit to Win .87 Units
Benjamin’s best outing to date is 29 yards. Already a low-volume offense, the Bills have been spreading the ball around, and the result is that Benjamin is averaging only five targets per game.
The Bills project to be playing from behind and throwing the ball this one, but Benjamin has yet to show much to suggest he’s capable of hitting the over here.
Aaron Rodgers vs Buffalo
Over 250.5 Passing Yards
2 Units to Win 1.24
Rodgers is beaten up but still averaging 277 passing yards per game.
Buffalo doesn’t exactly present the toughest test on pass defense. They’re middle of the pack in that area, with opposing QBs throwing for an average of 271 yards per game.
It’s close, but there is a touch of value here. Just a small play.
DeAndre Hopkins > Keenan Allen, Receptions
1 Unit to Win .82 Units
Hopkins faces a Colts defense which limits the big plays, seemingly happy to surrender plenty of shorter catches. That bodes well for Hopkins, who has at least 10 targets in all three games.
Allen doesn’t rate to be quite as busy, as his team is a 10-point favorite against the 49ers. Hopkins has been slightly better in overall volume as well as target market share (reTRGMS).
Robby Anderson vs Jacksonville
2 Unit to Win 1.74 Units
Anderson is averaging 3.3 targets per game and has a season best of 41 yards in Week 1.
As the Jets outside WR, he has the best chance of drawing brutal match ups with Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye
Isaiah Crowell vs Jacksonville
Under 50.5 Rushing Yards
1 Unit to win .83 Units
Since exploding for 102 yards on 10 carries in Week 1 versus the Lions – the worst rushing defense in the league – Crowell has rushing totals of 35 and 34 over the past two weeks.
The Jaguars run defense is just middle of the pack, but the problems for Crowell here are two fold:
- His Jets are -7.5 underdogs on the road, which does not set up well for rushing volume.
- He’s in a straight up time share with Bilal Powell, racking up 38 rush attempts to Powell’s 31.
Marcus Mariota vs Philadelphia
Under 219.5 Passing Yards
1.5 Unit to Win 1.3 Units
“Quarterback” and “nerve damage in his throwing elbow” are words you never want to hear in the same sentence.
Mariota was tossing limp noodles in his return from injury last week, putting up a paltry 100 yards passing to go with his 103 yards in Week 1.
The Eagles got lit up by Ryan Fitzpatrick (who hasn’t?) for 402 yards but otherwise have held Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck to 251 and 164 yards respectively.
Mariota should be better than he’s been so far, but this line is just too high considering the significant injury and strong opponent.
George Kittle vs Los Angeles Chargers
Under 42.5 Yards
.5 Units to Win .44 Units
Kittle was coming into his own with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, putting up lines of 90 and 79 so far this season.
However, in four games with new QB C.J. Beathard last year, his yardage totals were: 16, 22, 27, and 14.
There are no guarantees that the trend will continue, but keep in mind the Chargers held Travis Kelce to 16 yards in Week 1.
Over 265.5 Yards
1.5 Units to win 1.3 Units
Manning has surpassed this total in two of three games this season. His lone under was 224 yards against the elite Jacksonville unit.
The Saints are surrendering an average of 346 passing yards per game, fifth most in the league.