Bet the Prop
Image default

Cheating on Prop Bets With Our Best Bets on Wide Receiver Yardage Props

This year’s yardage prop bets for wide receivers present some excellent values.

We’ve already shown that some experienced quarterbacks and running backs are being undervalued by bookmakers when it comes to yardage totals, and we’re seeing a similar pattern at wide receiver.

While you may be tempted to chase the upside of youth, it’s the veterans that are providing the value.

Check the Cheat Sheets

Let’s use our cheat sheets to find it.

These sheets compare the line being offered by against the season-long projections from three different fantasy football experts. Fantasy football has been the driving force behind some of the best analytics work in football, and they can give us a great baseline for player expectation.

Mike Clay works for ESPN and consistently provides some of the most accurate projections in football; his work is considered by many to be the gold standard in the industry. FF Today has been providing top-tier projections for years, while numberFire uses a proprietary analytics model to provide an unbiased set of projections.

How to read the table:

  • The O/U column is the line that has been set by
  • “Clay proj” are the projections for each player from Mike Clay.
  • The “Value” column is the difference between the line being offered and that rankers projection.
  • For example, A.J. Green’s yardage prop is set at 1,199.5, and Clay projects him at 1,192. So the difference, or “value,” is +92.5, making the lean there the over. However, FF Today projects Green to go under by 144 yards.
  • To account for those variations across the projections, the final “Average Value” column is the average difference from all the projections.
  • All the columns are sortable to make it easy to find the best values.
 O/U YardsClay ProjectionClay ValueFF Today ProjFF Today ValuenumberFire ProjnumberFire ValueAvg Value
Adam Thielen1099.5119292.51,040-601131.5332.0321.68
AJ Green1199.5129797.51,056-1441212.3812.88-11.04
Alshon Jeffrey875.597195.5871-4.5990.6115.168.7
Amari Cooper975.5102549.51,066911089.17113.6784.56
Antonio Brown1499.5157474.51,366-1341476.89-22.61-27.2
Brandin Cooks799.589999.581313.5975.78176.2896.4
Davante Adams1050.51049-1.51,126761147.2696.7656.92
DeAndre Hopkins1300.5132928.51,266-351362.7562.2518.75
Demaryius Thomas1049.5106111.51,007-431045.02-4.48-11.83
DeVante Parker750.5867116.581362.5816.7966.2981.76
Doug Baldwin1100.51067-33.51,046-551187.2986.79-0.4
Emmanuel Sanders925.594822.5845-80.5874.93-50.57-36.19
Golden Tate975.5100529.51,045701025.9350.4349.81
Jarvis Landry949.5895-54.5845-104.5854.95-94.55-84.52
Julio Jones1399.51568168.51,5171181541.5142142
Keenan Allen1299.513077.51,206-941281.14-18.36-34.79
Larry Fitzgerald850.51052201.5989138.51055.08204.58181.5
Michael Crabtree774.582550.5878103.5799.224.759.57
Michael Thomas1200.5126059.51,188-131369.29168.7971.93
Mike Evans1099.51058-41.51,082-181323.8224.355.1
Odell Beckham1200.5129998.51,275751351.1150.6107.87
T.Y. Hilton1050.51254203.51,085351069.6419.1485.71
Tyreek Hill1000.5105554.5965-35.51008.457.958.98
Rob Gronkowski1059.5112262.5114080.51010.19-49.3131.23
Travis Kelce1000.5982-18.5105655.5988.29-12.218.26

Notes on the Over

  • Larry Fitzgerald emerges as the best bet on the board with a yardage total that has been set suspiciously low at 850.5. The future Hall of Famer has eclipsed 1,023 receiving yards in three straight seasons.
  • Julio Jones is coming off a poor season by his standards, and that recency bias is keeping his betting line low. All three projections have him beating his yardage total by at least 118 yards.
  • A similar recent bias is working against (or for, depending on your perspective) Odell Beckham. Coming off a broken ankle, his total looks a little low, and the projections have him beating it unanimously.
  • Brandin Cooks is an interesting case. His 799.5 total seems very low considering he’s gone for at least 1,082 yards in three straight seasons. However, he’s now on a Rams team that spreads the ball around a lot. We still like the over.
  • T.Y. Hilton appears to be a phenomenal value as long as Andrew Luck is under center. While he went for just 966 yards last season with Jacoby Brissett as his QB, he averaged 1,306 yards in his previous three seasons with Luck.

Notes on the Under

  • All three projections have Jarvis Landry falling short of his 949.5 yardage prop. However, recent developments may convince us otherwise. Josh Gordon is absent from Browns training camp, and Corey Coleman was traded to the Bills, leaving Landry with a ton of targets.
  • Keenan Allen’s line has been set at 1,299.5 after going for 1,393 last year. However, last season was the first time he played all 16 games, and he’s always an injury risk. However, if he’s healthy, he’s going to rack up the yards yet again.
  • Speaking of injury risks, Rob Gronkowski is a lock to hit the over if he can stay on the field. However, hes missed nine games over the past two season. Proceed with caution.

Related posts