A promising Week 10 NFL slate lies ahead and we’ve found phenomenal angles on two NFL Props for Week 10.
After a final drive cash on TNF for our Ravens Dolphins prop, let’s keep the momentum going with two more wins this weekend.
My Bet The Prop article plays are 11-6 so far this NFL season after Cordarrelle Patterson hit his over on Atlanta’s third play from scrimmage last week.
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It’s time to take a look at the receiving props for two players that have been up and down this season. Let’s dive into this week’s plays.
NFL Props for Week 10 (11/14)
Michael Carter Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110 @ DraftKings)
Michael Carter has come on strong for the Jets during his rookie campaign. Carter’s performance was slow out of the gates, but his increased involvement lately has made him one of the NFL’s most dangerous pass-catchers out of the backfield.
Jets QB Mike White also does wonders for Carter’s receiving upside. Although it’s quite early in the former fifth-round-pick’s career, White throws check-downs as much as anyone. His 5.5-yard average depth of target ranks dead last out of all 37 quarterbacks that have thrown at least 70 passes this season. Even Jared Goff and Ben Roethlisberger have a higher average depth of target, and their RBs rank first and second in receptions, respectively.
Carter’s increased workload has coincided with the rise of Mike White for New York, which is the perfect storm for the upside he brings as a receiver. Carter has emerged as the unquestioned lead back for the Jets lately, which has directly led to spectacular output in the receiving game. Here’s his game log below, showing his receiving stats and snap counts.
Carter went nuclear in the only two games Mike White played the majority of New York’s snaps. The Jets are 12-point home underdogs against the Bills this week. They will almost certainly be trailing throughout the game, which means the Mike White to Michael Carter connection should be prevalent all afternoon.
The rookie backfield threat out of North Carolina saw a massive 23 targets in two full games with Mike White, posting 81 receiving YPG across these two contests. Carter has reached this over in three consecutive weeks and will look to make it four against a tough Bills defense on Sunday.
Tyler Lockett Under 5.5 Receptions (-120 @ DraftKings)
Tyler Lockett has as strong a connection with Russell Wilson as nearly any other receiver-quarterback combo in the NFL. So why do I like the under on his receptions? Well, surprisingly enough, the Seahawks throw the ball less than almost any other team in football.
The Seahawks’ 27.5 pass attempts per game (27.3 in four full games with Russell Wilson) ranks 31st in the NFL. And, Seattle ranks just 25th in overall pass rate, per sharpfootballstats.com and as shown here:
Seattle’s pass rate on first down is the sixth-lowest in the league, the sixth-lowest when in a tied game, and the third-lowest when trailing.
This boils down to just 5.1 receptions per game for Lockett this season and makes the 5.5 line one he hasn’t reached frequently. Lockett has less than 5.5 catches in six of his eight games. This is exactly in line with his production from the tail end of the 2020 season when Seattle began to move to more of a run-heavy approach. T-Lock posted at least 6 receptions just three times in Seattle’s final ten games of 2020.
The Green Bay Packers have been stingy against wide receivers this season. The Pack are allowing the seventh-fewest receptions per game to wide receivers. This goes hand in hand with the 34.3 times per game opponents are throwing on Green Bay, the 12th-fewest in the league.
Green Bay has only allowed three wideouts to catch six passes in a single game this season. And, the Packers have held several star receivers to poor showings:
- Tyreek Hill: 4 receptions, 37 yards
- Deebo Samuel: 5 receptions, 52 yards
- DeAndre Hopkins: 2 receptions, 66 yards
There’s not a lot of room for Lockett or teammate DK Metcalf to have a huge game at Lambeau Field this week, and I love the under on Lockett’s receptions.
Michael Carter is one of the NFL’s most exciting young running backs, and he’ll look to take advantage of the short passes thrown by Mike White against a stingy Buffalo Bills defense.
Additionally, Tyler Lockett’s tough matchup on the road against the Packers seems likely to play a role in the 7th-year wideout being less involved than expected in Week 10.
Have fun playing these NFL props for Week 10, and join us for the remainder of the NFL season!