The revenge factor is not one I ever really consider when handicapping player prop bets. If it such a thing exists, it’s difficult to quantify.
But when those narratives are backed by the numbers, sign me up. This week, I like the overs on two players in potential revenge spots — Dion Lewis and Donte Moncreif – but not just because they’re facing their former teams.
We’ll also check in with one head to head prop bet, and you can check out a bunch more of our favorite Week 10 head to heads over at Bet the Prop.
Here are the records on the year:
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 176-85 (66%)
- Article picks : 27-9 (75%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 197-140 (58%)
Titans RB Dion Lewis
Over 4 Receptions -115
Lewis looks like a solid value in this spot, and any potential revenge narratives are just icing on the cake.
- The Patriots give up 5.8 RB receptions per game, 12th most in the league.
- New England is fifth in overall scoring and 7-point favorites, which should mean plenty of opportunities for Lewis.
- Lewis looks to have seized the Titans backfield, winning snap percentages of 84% and 63% over the past two weeks compared to 20% and 34% for an ineffective Derrick Henry.
The diminutive back needs less volume than others to get the same job done. Among all RBs with at least 20 targets, his 89% catch rate is the best in the league.
Betting the over on Lewis receptions would’ve netted you a 4-1 record this season.
I’d play it to 4.5 receptions, but I’d want something close to plus odds to do that. At this line, I’d pay up to -122 vig.
Jaguars WR Donte Moncreif
Over 3.5 Receptions -140
Here’s another potential revenge spot which has the support of several trends.
Moncrief faces his old club just as he’s he’s taking over as his new team’s top receiver.
- Over the last month, Moncreif leads the Jaguars in market share of Air Yards and market share targets.
- He’s pacing the team in targets, receptions, yards, average depth of target, and yards after catch over that time.
- In the four weeks leading up to the bye, his 35 targets ranked 12th best among all WRs.
He also pops as the top-ranked “buy low” player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s predictive Air Yards model for Week 10.
Playing on the fast track in Indianapolis doesn’t hurt, and neither does the fact that the Jaguars are 3-point underdogs against the league’s seventh-highest-scoring team.
Moncreif has at least four receptions in four-straight games, and I’m surprised to see this line at 3.5. I’d happily play it to four.
Check out the rest of our Week 10 picks at The Action Network.