We’re expecting a heavy dose of the ground game featuring Clyde Edwards-Helaire as we break down one of our best TNF props for Chiefs Chargers.
Everything points towards a busy night for the former first-round draft pick, and we’re making this an official BTP play for 1 unit to kick off Week 15.
Our official NFL plays are hitting 61% on the year – as always we track all our plays here – and there’s still plenty of season left. Join us to get in on all the action, including NBA, which is also hitting over 60% this year.
Let’s jump in.
TNF Props for Chiefs Chargers
Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 12.5 Rushing Attempts (-120 @ DraftKings)
This is a straightforward play and doesn’t require much in-depth analysis.
It’s no secret that the Chargers defense is the biggest run-funnel in the league. They beg teams to run the ball with their constant two-high safety looks, and teams are obliging by shifting 5% towards the run against them, the highest mark in football.
Their opponents also:
- Run 49% of the time in neutral game script (within 7 points), most in the league
- Run 33 rushing plays per 60 minutes in neutral game script, most in the league
- Run 69 plays per 60 in all situations, second-most in the league
The Chiefs themselves were one in a long line of teams to take advantage of the Chargers’ insistence on light looks in the box this year, feeding Edwards-Helaire a season-high 17 carries when these teams met in Week 3.
It’s no surprise, then, that LA is allowing the fifth-most RB raw rushing attempts in the league this year, a seriously impressive feat for an 8-5 team. A total of 15 different RBs have hit 12+ carries against the Chargers over their 13 games.
That kind of raw production doesn’t always translate to props, but it does here — 77% of RBs to get a Rushing Attempts line vs the Chargers have gone over this year.
Projections lend us some studly support here. They range from 13.5 to 15.3 carries, for an excellent 12.6% edge on average.
Pace & Points
TNF games are typically ugly and not good environments to bet overs, but this looks like an exception. The 52-point total for tonight is far and away the highest on this week’s slate.
Their 151 combined average snaps/game also easily tops the slate.
These teams can score, as they did the first time around when the Chargers won 30-24.
Conclusion
We think this line should be set closer to 13.5, and it probably won’t last very long.
We’d play it up to -135 at this number.
