Your fantasy football team didn’t make the playoffs and your DFS account is busted, so here you are looking to make the best of Thursday Night Football prop bets in a game that features the lowest point total of the week.
I can almost sense your excitement for tonight’s Jaguars-Titans tilt from here.
Look, I’ve handicapped better games this year; that much is certain. And with such low expectations for this one, it means the betting lines are depressed and the overs are in play.
Despite an unfortunate Monday night, we’re still 16-6-1 over our last seven prime time games. Let’s dive in.
Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette
Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
I bet this line when it opened at 78.5 yards last night, but I’m still fine with this number.
I never like chasing any line over 80 – it’s lot of yards no matter how you slice it – but Fournette’s volume is likely to be as fat as anyone’s this week.
- In the three appearances leading up to his one-game suspension (Weeks 10- 12), his 70 carries led all running backs.
- He’s averaging 23.3 totes in that time, including the game against Buffalo where he was ejected in the third quarter.
The Jaguars are small underdogs in this one, but Fournette’s role appears to be game-script proof — he had 24 carries against the Colts in Week 10 when his team trailed the entire way.
Jacksonville’s splits with and without Fournette are dramatic — they rush the ball 74 percent more often when the big fella is active.
Something like 22 carries is Fournette’s absolute floor against the Titans, who average 22.9 RB attempts against — eighth-most in the league.
While Tennesee was playing stout run defense early in the year, they’ve been leaky of late, giving up 162 yards to Lamar Miller and 98 to Isaiah Crowell over the past two weeks.
With QB Cody Kessler at the helm for the Jaguars, a Fournette-centric game plan would make a ton of sense.
Tread lightly here — the always-present RB injury factor, especially with Fournette, means that chasing such lofty numbers carries inherent risk.
Titans RB/TE Anthony Firkser
Over 20.5 Yards (-125)
Who is Anthony Firkser? Who can say… Not even Rotoworld has a single blurb on this guy.
Here’s what I do know:
- The undrafted Harvard grad is averaging 46 yards on 3.3 targets over the past three games.
- While he’s listed as an RB in some places, Firkser has mostly been playing TE (he has zero carries on the year), a position that the Jaguars defense has been relatively vulnerable to.
- He’s caught all 13 targets thrown his way this year.
With AJ Bouye and Jalen Ramsey locking down the perimeter, Andrew Luck peppered TE Eric Ebron with 16 targets last week.
Ramsey will follow Corey Davis tonight, leaving plenty of room underneath for Firkser and TE Jonnu Smith to operate.
This 20.5 total is just too tiny to resist.
I’m digging hard for another play in this one but am just not seeing anything I love. Check our Twitter feed for any additional plays closer to kickoff.