- Our best Raiders Saints props for Monday Night Football offers up this free, feature play on Josh Jacob’s receiving line when the Saints visit Las Vegas as 5.5-point favorites
- Jacobs racked up 139 yards from scrimmage in Week 1 against the Panthers but faces a much tougher test against the Saints stout defense
- We followed up a 72% record on opening week with 65% in Week 2, and we’re now up clicking along at +20 total units on the season — join us here to get our weekly winning NFL prop slates alerted to your device.
Jacobs secured career-highs in air volume in Week 1 against a porous Panthers pass defense. Will he continue to be used out of the backfield much like the RB who’ll be lining up on the other side, Alvin Kamara?
Let’s jump right in.
Raiders Saints Props for MNF
Raiders RB Josh Jacobs
Over/Under 17.5 Receiving Yards
Much of the fantasy football world faded Josh Jacobs in the first and second rounds of summer drafts because of one glaring concern — lack of work in the passing game. His 2.2 targets per game as a rookie last year ranked 51st among all RBs, while his 12.8 yards per game ranked 55th.
But heading into the new season, there were indications that we might see a bigger role for Jacobs in the passing game. That appeared to come to fruition as he set a new career-high in targets and receptions in Week 1.
The sophomore back converted those six looks into 46 receiving yards, topping his previous best of 30.
Editor’s note: Bet the Prop is coming out on fire on NFL props, hitting 72% in Week 1. Join us here for weekly slates like this one.
Is That Work Here to Stay?
Keep in mind, the Raiders led almost the entire game, so it’s not like these were cheap targets in garbage time — Jon Gruden wanted Jacobs involved.
And it wasn’t the product of a bloated play count, either. Derek Carr’s 30 attempts were tied for fifth-fewest among all QBs in Week 1, and Jacobs saw six of those. That’s a 21% target share, good enough for third-best among all RBs last week, behind only the league’s premier pass-catching RBs, Kamara (27%), and Saquon Barkley (23%).
We don’t know for sure if Jacobs is approaching that elite-usage tier just yet, but Week 1 gave us some strong indicators. If he’s getting anything near 20% of team targets going forward, this line is too low.
And even if he reverts back to something closer to four targets, his career mark of 6.2 yards per target still gives us some rope.
You can’t attack the Saints defense on the ground — last year they gave up the second-fewest rushing yards in the league, failing to allow even one RB to crest 83 yards.
They did allow eight different backs to hit 30 receiving yards, though, and it would be a surprise if Jacobs wasn’t once again involved in that phase of the game.
Jacobs Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-108 BetMGM, or -118 @ DraftKings)
I would play this up to 19.5 yards, and at this line, would pay up to -130.
There’s still the risk that last week’s result is more of an outlier for Jacobs, but this line doesn’t appear properly adjusted for the potential new reality for the Raiders’ offensive centerpiece.