- We break down one of our best props for Packers Bears on SNF; this free feature play takes a stand on QB Mitchell Trubisky‘s passing yards line
- Trubisky, of course, was infamously selected second overall ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson
- However, after being benched for Nick Foles earlier this season, the Bears are going back to Trubisky for Week 12 though.
Trubisky is back! The Bears benched the former second-overall pick in Week 3 for the recently acquired Foles, but the latter is still dealing with an injury suffered near the tail end of Chicago’s loss against the Vikings.
That means Trubisky will get the start against the Bears’ fierce divisional rivals – and he’s the subject of our free feature play for the week.
Our free article plays are 17-10 (65%) on the season after a miss on Thanksgiving, so let’s get back in the win column with this prop for SNF.
Packers Bears Props for SNF
Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky
Under 230.5 Passing Yards (-114 @ BetOnline)
Note: We locked this in when it opened for our subscribers at U240.5, though we still like it down to 227.5 yards. All we do is watch markets and rack up CLV, so if that’s your thing, join us.
Trubisky barely eclipsed this number in Week 1 (242 passing yards) before notching just 192 in the last full game he played.
Now he gets a Green Bay squad that slows the game down for their opponents. The Packers average just 62.9 plays per game on offense – 23rd in the league – but the real story is how they slow down the other team. Teams facing Green Bay are averaging just 59.7 plays per game – the second-lowest average in the NFL.
Game script does frequently force teams to pass against the Packers – and that could be the case here with Chicago as 8.5-point underdogs – but they’re still allowing just 33 pass attempts per game, tied for third-fewest.
Pace table shows offensive pace against.
Unlikely to rack up volume, Trubisky will need to be efficient to beat this number. As we’ve seen throughout his career, he has mightily struggled to pass the ball efficiently, and we’re expecting more of the same in this one.
Running Game Boost?
In addition, David Montgomery is expected to be back for this Sunday night showdown, meaning the Bears won’t have to lean on converted WR Cordarrelle Patterson as their lead runner.
Although it’s fair to question whether Montgomery is an actual upgrade over Patterson, it’s also reasonable to say that the Chicago coaching staff is more inclined to run the ball when they have Montgomery in the backfield.
In addition to all of that, it’s worth noting that Trubisky went under this number more than half the time in 2019 in largely the same situation. Given that, plus what we know about teams not running many plays against the Packers, we’re rolling with the under on this one.
The Packers are one of the slower-paced teams in the league, and their opponents are averaging a mere 59.7 plays and 33 pass attempts per game. Trubisky will need to be efficient to have at least 241 passing yards – and it’s probably not wise to bet on Trubisky being good. Take the under here.