- Giants QB Daniel Jones goes under the spotlight as we look at the best props for Giants Eagles on Thursday Night Football
- We’ll examine Jones’ passing yardage prop of O/U 232.5 yards
- The Eagles (1-4-1) host the Giants (1-5) as 4.5-point favorites in a game with a 45.5 point total
Our top props for Giants Eagles takes a stance on Jones, who’s regressed in his sophomore season, showing declines in completion percentage (62% in 2019; 61% in 2020), Yards/Attempt (6.6 to 6.1), QBR (87.7 to 71), and TD:INT ratio (2:1 to 1:2).
His passing yards per game has dipped to 204 after hitting 232 as a rookie, and we’re not expecting him to have much of a bounce-back tonight on a short week.
As for our results, we’re hitting 59.9% with a 13.9% ROI through six weeks. Join us here to get weekly +EV NFL player prop slates alerted to your device.
Best Props for Giants Eagles
Giants QB Daniel Jones
Under 232.5 Passing Yards (-112 DraftKings)
Jones ranks 22nd in passing yards despite throwing the 11th-most attempts so far. Through 19 career games, he’s now averaging 223.7 passing yards.
A picture of inefficiency, his:
- QB Rating of 71 ranks 42nd at the position
- Completion percentage of 61% ranks 39th
- Yards/Att of 6.1 ranks 38th
It’s added up to a lot of profit in the prop market… for under bettors. Not many passers have managed to underperform their already-meager expectations quite like Jones.
Through six weeks, his average Passing Yards O/U is 247.7, but his average actual result is 203.8. He’s now 1-5 to the under on his yardage prop, dropping five-straight.
|Week 6||Daniel Jones||WAS||242.5||112||Under|
|Week 5||Daniel Jones||DAL||265.5||222||Under|
|Week 4||Daniel Jones||LAR||247.5||190||Under|
|Week 3||Daniel Jones||SF||239.5||179||Under|
|Week 2||Daniel Jones||CHI||245.5||241||Under|
|Week 1||Daniel Jones||PIT||239.5||279||Over|
Volume is a concern for Jones. After hitting 40 and 41 pass attempts in his first two games, he’s averaging 30 attempts over his last four.
The Giants now rank ninth-last in total pass attempts with 33.5/game, and unless Philadelphia’s shorthanded offense can run up the score a little, Jones will likely stay in the 35-range tonight.
At a career YPA of 6.4, that puts him at 224 yards, which is also right about where projections have him.
The Eagles aren’t nearly as banged up on defense as they are on offense, and despite being a pass-funnel defense, they’re still allowing the 12th-fewest passing yards per game (229.7).
That’s in part because their games have been slow-paced and ugly, which has helped them to a solid record when it comes to keeping opposing QBs under their prop totals.
They’re 5-1 to the under in defending Passing Yard props, with only a volume-fueled Joe Burrow hitting his over.
|Lamar Jackson||Passing Yards||225.5||186||Week 6||Under|
|Ben Roethlisberger||Passing Yards||270.5||229||Week 5||Under|
|Nick Mullens||Passing Yards||268.5||200||Week 4||Under|
|Joe Burrow||Passing Yards||260.5||312||Week 3||Over|
|Jared Goff||Passing Yards||272.5||267||Week 2||Under|
|Dwayne Haskins||Passing Yards||222.5||178||Week 1||Under|
Don’t expect much volume or pace tonight, either.
These teams combine for an average of 64 plays per game, which is the second-lowest total of any game this week.
With Jones’ most dangerous downfield weapon Darius Slayton dealing with a nagging foot injury, on top of a tough matchup with Darius Slay, this is a tough spot for Jones to exceed passing expectations.
I’d play the yardage line down to 227.5, and at this current line, would pay as much as -130.