Nick Chubb gets the dream matchup tonight as we key in on his rushing line in one of our best props for Browns Steelers on MNF.
This is a rather obvious spot and maybe even a little bit square, but as we’re about to see, the matchup is about as good as, and we don’t see how we can pass.
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Props for Browns Steelers on MNF
Nick Chubb OVER 87.5 Rushing Yards (-115 @ DraftKings)
The Steelers defense has become a massive run funnel, allowing both volume and frighteningly poor efficiency.
- Their 4.83 YPC allowed to RBs is second-worst behind only Houston
- They’re allowing 120.5 rushing yards/game, second-worst
- They’ve also allowed the fifth-most rushing attempts
Teams are averaging -4% Pass Rate Over Expectation against Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, the Browns have a -4% PROE on offense, so everything is set up for another run-heavy affair.
Five different RBs have had 100-plus yard games against Pittsburgh, and 15 of them have put up at least 50 yards in their 15 games. Most recently, they’ve been destroyed by the likes of D’Onta Foreman (108 yards), Dalvin Cook (205), Joe Mixon (165), and D’Andre Swift.
There are some good backs on that list, but Chubb might be the best pure runner in the league and is in a good spot to become the fourth RB to hit the century mark against Pittsburgh in their last five games.
Chubb has had 91 or more yards in 7 of his 12 games and is going over his closing prop line on rushing yards at a 75% clip this year.
No, he didn’t get there in his first matchup with Pittsburgh, but that was a slightly stronger Steelers defense back then, one that’s been in a freefall ever since.
Could Kareem Hunt be back? It’s possible, but he only practiced for the first time in weeks this past Friday, and if he is active, I’d expect him to mostly take the field on passing downs and leave the rushing work to Chubb.
It’s always tough betting overs on these kinds of numbers, but this is a case where we feel it’s justified.
Industry projections have Chubb in the 97-104 yard range, and everything points to a productive night in a soft matchup.