The Redskins and Titans kick off a second-straight Saturday slate, and we’re running down the best prop bets for the game, which kicks off at 4:30 ET/1:30 PT.
Of course, “best prop bets” and “Tennessee Titans” don’t always go hand in hand, at least, not for us. They’re a tough team to handicap, and unlike the 5-0 dream card last Monday night, this card is no slam dunk.
What I do know is that the Titans are at home as 10-point favorites in this one, a situation which sets up well for Derrick Henry to bowl is way to another easy over.
Titans RB Derrick Henry
Over 81.5 Rushing Yards (-115 @ Betonline)
We already talked about Henry in our breakdown of some Monkey Knife Fight’s prop bets for Saturday, but it’s worth repeating what a phenomenal spot he’s in. Betonline is also giving us a discount at 81.5 yards (MKF’s line is 83.5), so I want to be sure to get in a straight prop bet as well.
Longtime readers will know I rarely chase any number over 70, but there are just so many factors working in his favor:
- At home as a 10-point favorite
- 50 carries for a league-leading 408 yards (8.2 yards per carry) over the last two weeks
- Facing a Washington defense allowing more rushing yards than any team over the last month
Henry had a career-best 33 carries last week, and I’m betting his ceiling this week is around 25 totes as the Titans continue to ride the hot hand.
While I’d play this line up 87.5, I’d rather not pay any more vig than we currently are.
Titans WR Corey Davis
Under 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115 @ 5 Dimes)
In addition to all of the above, this is Week 16’s lowest-totaled game. That’s not a great sign for Davis, nor is the fact that the Titans are the second-biggest favorite of the week.
Even if Davis hadn’t been stinking up the joint in recent weeks, this wouldn’t be a great spot for him.
Perhaps that’s a harsh assessment, but whatever the reason, Davis’ targets have dried up.
- The Titans have turned run heavy, piling up 33 attempts per game over the last three, third most in the league.
- As a result, Davis’ 24 targets since Week 11 rank 47th among WRs, and his 253 Air Yards ranks 55th.
More than the underlying numbers, it’s the shift in market share that stands out the most. Since returning from injury in Week 13, Taywan Taylor has two more targets and 133 percent more Air Yards (307 to 132) than Davis.
The matchup against Josh Norman isn’t a huge factor, but it’s enough to tip the scales even further towards the under.
I wouldn’t play this line any lower, but at this number, I’d be willing to pay up to -122.
To be frank, I don’t love this card, nor any card involving the Titans. These may wind up being my only two plays (as always follow us on Twitter for new plays), but if you’re looking for a little more action on this one, here are a few “unofficial” leans:
Washington RB Chris Thompson
Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-115 @ 5 Dimes)
Two things here:
- The Titans just held Saquon Barkley to 25 yards on 10 targets.
- Even though Thompson should have a good game script, I’m concerned that his targets plummeted to just two last week in Josh Johnson’s first full game at QB.
Washington QB Josh Johnson
Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-130 @ 5 Dimes)
Now up to 94 yards on 16 carries in six quarters of play, Johnson’s legs may be Washington’s best bet at moving the ball.
Adrian Peterson is looking shot behind a CFL-level line, while Johnson has nothing that could be fairly characterized as a passing game weapon.