- Our best NFL props for Saturday’s slate between the Broncos and Bills takes a stand on the receiving line for Denver’s Noah Fant
- The sophomore TE has been a key cog for the Broncos offense but missed almost all of last week with an illness
- The Broncos host the Bills as 6-point underdogs, Saturday at 4:30 ET
The Broncos and Bills kick off our look at best NFL props for Saturday’s slate, and it’s a spot that sets up well for Fant. Check back soon for our breakdown of the second tilt between the Packers and Panthers.
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Broncos TE Noah Fant
Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-112 @ DraftKings)
I’m a bit shocked by this line.
Fant’s over/under has consistently been set in the 37-43 range since opening day. According to our database, 37.5 yards was his lowest line of the season until now, and now it’s suddenly being set 10% lower than that?
It’s easy to see why his lines have consistently been set at 37-plus. Even including last week’s game which he left after five snaps with a non-Covid illness, Fant has gone over this number in nine of 12 with a median result of 45.5.
So why is this line sitting at 33.5? We’ll get to the matchup in a moment, but it certainly doesn’t stem from defensive challenges presented by the Bills.
I can’t help but feel prop traders are unduly dinging Fant for last week’s goose egg, which looks ugly in the box score but doesn’t account for context.
He put in full practices late this week and is expected to play without limitations on Saturday. Even with Fant missing most of last week’s games, the Broncos still wanted to keep their TEs involved, peppering fill-ins Nick Vannett and Troy Fumagalli with nine targets for a whopping 34% share of team targets.
That sets up well against the Bills.
The Matchup
When facing Buffalo, teams have targeted their TEs 23% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the league. They also allow:
- The second-most yards to the position (64 YPG)
- Fifth-most targets and the second-most receptions
- Sixth-highest yards per target (11.1)
Combine that with a projected game script that has the Broncos trailing, and I would be surprised if this line of 33.5 was going to be one that made sportsbooks much money in the long run.
Conclusion
Projections peg Fant in the 41-46 range with an aggregate average of 43.9.
They’re bullish for good reason. There’s a lot to like about this spot, and I’d play it up to his normal line of 38.5.
