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Best NBA Props for Tonight (2/7): Nunn Goes Nuts?

The NBA has given us an eight-game slate from which to spot a few of the best NBA props for tonight. There are two player props that really pop  -- stand-out rookie Kendrick Nunn, and the captain of the shooter's shoot club, Carmelo Anthony. My 2020 YTD Record on NBA Props:
  • Free NBA Props Article Picks : 10 – 6 (62.5%)
  • Slack Chat Subscriber Picks: 58 – 45 (56.3%)
  • Total : 68 – 51 (57.1%)
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Heat Kendrick Nunn

Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114 @ Prop Builder)

The Miami Heat continue their road trip with a stop in Sacramento. This game features a spread of just 1.5 with an above-average total of 219.5. Nunn's in a great spot tonight because the Heat will be so short-handed. Jimmy Butler has been ruled OUT. and with the Heat being active at the trade deadline yesterday, they'll be short a couple of rotation players as well. Tyler Herro has already been ruled out, which naturally opens up more minutes and opportunities for Nunn, and more minutes means more points. These are Nunn's numbers with Jimmy Butler is on and off the floor:

Stats

Jimmy Butler IN

Jimmy Butler OUT

Points

15.8 18.3
Rebounds 3.1

4.6

Assists

4.1 6.5
Total 23.0

29.4

His production jumps by almost 6 PRA per 36 minutes with Butler off the floor over a solid sample size. Nunn also gets a matchup against Sacramento. Five games back, he played 43 minutes against the Kings, scored 25 points, grabbed 7 rebounds, and dished out 6 Assists for a total of 38 PRA. It so happens that Butler also sat out that game against the Kings with an injury. The Kings rank 18th defensively but have regressed over their last 10, ranking 25th during that stretch. Over the last two weeks, the Kings have given up 23.2 points and 10.7 Assists to opposing Point Guards.  We really like this spot for Nunn tonight as he checks all of the important boxes:
  • Minutes
  • Opportunities
  • Matchup
  • History of Success
Look for 35 minutes from Nunn tonight. Given that much time on the floor against a weaker defensive team will give him every opportunity to hit this number.
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Trailblazers Forward Carmelo Anthony

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