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Best NBA Props for Friday (7/31): Ja Morant, More

  • Our best NBA props come from a six-game slate on the second day of the NBA restart
  • We’ll break down three plays for you involving Ja Morant, De’Aaron Fox, and Kristaps Porzingis
  • You can get our full slate of daily NBA props FREE for a limited time — details after the pick

Tonight’s restart slate is a larger one, so we’ve got plenty to choose from. I’ll kick things off by asking — can Ja Morant hit his points total over as he makes his summer debut against the Portland Trail Blazers?

We tipped off the season with a perfect 2-0 record in this space. Let’s stay hot.

And be sure to check out our absolutey loaded card, stuffed with picks for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night event here.

Best NBA Player Props for Friday (7/31)

Grizzlies Guard Ja Morant

Over 27.5 Points + Assists (@ FanDuel -106)

Note: This game starts early at 4 pm ET.

Morant and the Grizzlies face a pivotal game against Trail Blazers. Given the fact that New Orleans lost last night, the Grizz should feel an urgency to separate themselves from the group chasing the eight seed they hold.

In his debut scrimmage, Morant recorded seven points, eight assists, and five rebounds. In the second, he warmed up, scoring 17 points and handing out nine assists versus the Rockets. Morant in the final scrimmage scored 22 points and dished out 12 assists versus the Heat in 28 minutes.

  • When Morant plays 30-39 minutes, he averages 20.3 points and 7.8 assists 
  • Versus Western Conference opponents, he averages 18.6 points and 6.6 assists
  • In his 11 games post-All-Star break, Morant averaged 17.7 points and 6.3 assists

The Blazers are allowing the third-most PPG to PGs (25.17) and the sixth-most assists (8.48). Morant scored 20 in their only meeting, adding nine assists and five rebounds.

If Morant can play 35-plus minutes in the first game back, he’ll be on double-double alert versus the Blazers.

Damian Lillard is reportedly dealing with foot discomfort and may not be 100% as he defends Morant.

Kings Guard De’Aaron Fox

Under 19.5 Points (-120 @ PropBuilder)

In his only game versus the Spurs this season, Fox recorded 13 points in 26 minutes in a 20-point win.

The Spurs are down a ton of players, and the Kings’ have had nothing but positive injury reports and practices since Fox went down with an ankle injury. Two weeks ago, Fox was limited and expected to miss the first game, but suddenly he’s available for the Kings’ opener.

They have an uphill battle to make the postseason – making this a pivotal game for seeding – but Fox may not need to play extended minutes. Watching his ankle and long-term health is in the team’s best interest, and they’ll likely monitor his minutes in spurts, putting him somewhere in the upper 20s.

  • When Fox plays 20-29 minutes, he averages 15.8 points and 6.7 assists 
  • Versus Western Conference opponents, he averages 20.6 points in 31 minutes
  • He averages 17.4 points in seven career games versus the Spurs

Fox has a team-high usage rate of 29.3% and when Buddy Hield is on the floor; When on the floor together, Fox’s usage dips to 27.6% and Hield’s is a close 26.7%.

I expect Hield to take more control of the offense and with Sacramento’s bigs all cleared, Fox won’t have to keep his bad ankle on the gas pedal.

Mavericks’ Forward Kristaps Porzingis

Over 10.5 Rebounds (+102 @ Prop Builder)

The one downfall of playing small-ball lineups like the Rockets’ is that it becomes more difficult to guard 7-foot-3 centers that can stretch the floor and hit threes. Porizingis will be guarded by P.J. Tucker and Robert Covington for most of the night, and if that’s not enticing enough, there’s more.

In the first meeting with the Rockets, Porzingis totaled 23 points and 13 rebounds. In the second, he went for 35 points and 12 rebounds, once again hitting his over in points and rebounds. Porzingis played in the Mavericks’ final scrimmage and balled out scoring 17 points and grabbing 12 rebounds, in a team-high 26 minutes.

  • When Porzingis plays 30-39 minutes, he averages 11.2 rebounds per game
  • In his six career games versus the Rockets, he averages 10.8 rebounds per game
  • The Rockets allow the seventh-most rebounds per game to opposing centers (15.70)

Porzingis has the major advantage in size tonight and his main competition in rebounds will be his own teammate, Doncic.

Expect the Rockets defense to gameplan around how to guard, position, and box out against Porzingis all night.

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