We have a huge 11 game slate on Monday night with a lot of high-scoring matchups in the cards, and our best NBA prop bet of the evening comes from inter-conference matchup in Brooklyn as the Nets take on Lamarcus Aldridge and the San Antonio Spurs.
Spurs C LaMarcus Aldridge
Over 21.5 Points (-114 at BetOnline)
Aldridge has played in two games since the All-Star break.
- In the first, he struggled against the Raptors, scoring eight points on 2-8 shooting in 31 minutes.
- In the second game vs the Knicks, Aldridge played a lot better, scoring 18 points on 7-12 shooting but only played 21 minutes due to foul trouble.
Tonight’s matchup vs the Nets presents a prime bounce back spot.
On the season, the Nets allow the fourth-most points per game (PPG) to centers, and the 10th-most free throw attempts (FTA), while ranking 20th in defensive efficiency (DEFF) to the position. They also let up the 10th-most offensive rebounds per game.
In the paint, Brooklyn lets up the fourth-most PPG and rank 26th in DEFF, and the individual matchup is good, too — starting center, Jarrett Allen ranks 33rd out of 65 centers in DRPM. As a team, the Nets surrender 10th-most PPG in the NBA (112.8).
This game is also a nice pace-up spot for San Antonio. The Spurs are ranked 21st in pace on the season and 14th over the past 15 games. However, Brooklyn ranks 11th in pace on the season and second in the NBA in pace over the last 15 games.
With a spread of 1.5 and an over under of 233 oddsmakers are projecting a close, high-scoring game.
In his only matchup vs Brooklyn this year, Aldridge put up 20 points on 5-13 shooting in 38 minutes.
However for tonight, I’m expecting a fresh Aldridge coming off a season low in minutes to bounce back for a big game against the Nets.
I’d play this number to a price of -122.