After wading through 11- and three-game slates over the past two nights, our best NBA prop bet comes from a normal six-game slate on Thursday (2/28) night.
We’re going to an inter-conference battle between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are currently the third seed in the East, thanks in large part to the play of Bojan Bogdanovic over the past month.
Pacers SF Bojan Bogdanovic
Over 18.5 points (-114)
Bogdanovic has stepped up offensively since the Victor Oladipo injury back on January 23rd. In the month of February, he’s averaging 21.8 points per game (PPG) on 15.6 shot attempts in 32.5 minutes, going for 20+ points in eight out of 11 games.
His 15.6 shot attempts this month is his most on the year; he had 13.2 in January. In addition, with Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis off the floor, Bogdanovic sees the highest usage rate (USG) at 26.1% and is averaging 23.05 points per 36 minutes.
The Timberwolves present a great matchup for Bogdanovic.
On the season, versus Opposing Small Forwards (SFs):
- They rank 27th in defensive efficiency (DEFF)
- Allow the most points per game (23.1)
- Let up the seventh-highest field goal percentage (FG%)
- Surrender the fourth-highest three point percentage (3P%)
Timberwolves’ starting SF Andrew Wiggins is ranked a miserable 81st out of 88 in DRPM at the position.
Minnesota presents a pretty good matchup, as they let up the 12th-most PPG (112.2) and are a pace-up matchup for the Pacers, ranking 11th in pace, while Indiana is 26th in pace of play.
In his one game vs. Minnesota this year, back on October 22nd (when the whole team was healthy), Bogdanovic went for 20 points on 8-13 shooting in 36 minutes. Tonight, I’m expecting the same type of production in points with a slight boost to his shot attempts.
I would play this number as a play up to 19.5, and at the current line, would pay up to -122.