Coming off a profitable Saturday slate, we’re once again taking a look at the best Monkey Knife Fight prop bets for Sunday NFL division games featuring the Chargers vs Patriots, and Eagles vs Saints.
Be sure to check out our straight-up prop bets for the game in New England as well.
Chargers @ Patriots
In this game, I see two cards for that offer some clear value.
Here’s the first:
The Picks: Brady > Rivers +16.5 Yards & Edelman > Allen +0.5 Receptions
Here’s the second card:
The Picks: Unders across the board
By The Numbers
Rivers:
- 2018-2019 Average: 262.8 Yards, 2.41 TD, 0.94 INT
- 2018 Road Average: 232 Yards, 2.22 TD, 1.22 INT
- Sean Koerner Projection: 258 Yards
- 181 pass yards or less in three most recent games
Brady:
- 2018 Average: 272.2 Yards
- 2018 Home Average: 276.6 Yards
- Projection: 268 Yards
- Brady has passed over 249 Yards in all but 1 game since week 4
Allen:
- 2018 Average: 8.88 Targets / Game, 6.3 Rec / Game,
- 2018 Road Average: 8.38 Targets / Game, 5.88 Rec / Game
- Projection: 5.8 Rec, 69.6 Yards
- Since his week 16 injury, he has reception totals of 5, 4 and 4
- Has not exceeded 64 yards since his injury
- Averages skewed from game against Steelers with 19 Targets & 14 Receptions
Edelman
- 2018 Average: 9 Targets / Game, 6.16 Rec / Game
- 2018 Home Average: 8.33 Targets / Game, 5.16 Rec / Game
- Projection: 6.4 Rec
Analysis
For the first card, everything points to the Brady & Edelman combo.
Not only are they projected higher than their opponents, but we get them as underdogs. Though Edelman and Allen both have individual matchups, Edelman is the undisputed central cog in The Patriots passing offense. Josh Gordon has departed, and Rob Gronkowski is a shell of himself. Allen has not been the same since his injury, so Edelman is the safer pick.
Allen and Edelman have similar averages and projections, but in the somewhat likely event of a tie we win with the +0.5 on Edelman.
For the second card, we have multiple reasons to lean under:
- This game’s Vegas implied total is the lowest of the week @ 47.5
- Rivers has been kept under 182 yards in his last 3 games
- Melvin Gordon is coming off injuries to both knees
- All three players on the card are projected under
Eagles @ Saints
Nick Foles & Drew Brees
2 Man Over Under (2/2 pays 2.46x)
The pick: Foles Under, Brees Over
Foles:
- 2018-2019 Average: 279 Yards
- 2018 Road Average: 272.8 Yards
- Projection: 272 Yards
- Since replacing Wentz in week 16, has not exceeded 270 yards
- The Saints held the Eagles to 153 pass yards, intercepting Wentz three times in Week 11
Brees:
- 2018 Average: 266.1 Yards
- 2018 Home Average: 321.6 Yards
- Projection: 283 Yards
- Through for 363 against the Eagles in Week 11
- Has at least 326 in 5/7 home games
Analysis
When I first saw this card on MKF, I thought that they’d given the higher yardage line to the wrong QB.
We’re left to assume that whomever set the yardage prop on Brees is giving into some recency bias due to Brees low passing totals over the last four weeks. He’s been on the road for most of that time, and rested week 17, so it has been a while since we’ve seen him do what he does — go off at home.
As for Foles, The Saints defense has played much better towards the end of the year. They’ve kept all but the Steelers to 17 points or less since week 11, and this total is just a touch too high, even on the fast track of the Superdome.
