The NFL’s second week wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football, and it’s time again to take a look at the best Monkey Knife Fight Props for the Browns at Jets.
The games at Monkey Knife Fight (MKF) are a different twist on props. They’ve added tons of options since last season, including over/under on fantasy points. I’ll be breaking down spots that offer value throughout the regular season and playoffs.
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Browns vs Jets Monkey Knife Fight Props
Here’s how to find the different game options at MKF — if you look under the giant football, you’ll see an option to filter the available games. Clicking that and changing it to ‘ALL’ will unlock every prop available for your selected game.
We looked at some fantasy props for Monday Night Football, and we’re going back to the fantasy well again tonight with these over/unders on fantasy points.
Lay Of The Land
The first thing I like to do is scroll all the way to the right, and look at the six-player cards. Not to bet them, but to get an overview of what kind of lines are being offered on the smaller prop cards.
After comparing these numbers to three sets of projections, I’m seeing the largest perceived values on LeVeon Bell, Odell Beckham, and Nick Chubb all on the over.
If you’ve read any of my previous MKF analysis, you have seen that I much prefer to take unders because they hit far more often in prop betting. This is partly due to lines being shaded towards the over due to more public action, and also because of a mean vs median situation. Studs like Bell, Beckham, and Chubb all have explosion-weeks where they go off for 30+ FPTS, bringing their average up, while they go under that average more times than not.
There are multiple reasons that I worry about these overs, in spite of the projections.
- Bell is a home underdog, has an injured wrist and the Jets are starting backup QB Trevor Siemian, so their offense will likely suffer.
- Beckham only has one regular-season game with Mayfield so far and has not exceeded 18.5 FPTS in his last 4 games, though he has hit exactly 18.5 twice in that span.
- In his career, Beckham has passed that number in an impressive 38 of his 60 games, so if you like the Browns passing game for a bounce-back spot here on the road, over 18.5 does show value.
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I prefer a wait and see approach. As for Chubb, this has the potential to be a smash-spot with the Browns as 6.5-point favorite. Since gaining the lead role in Cleveland though, he has only surpassed 18.5 twice in 11 games.
What I want to do in this spot is take a game theory approach. We have two struggling offenses, both failing to surpass 16 points last week, in a prime-time game. Five of six primetime games have gone under the total so far this season. I’m going to look for spots to take correlated unders and hope this game is a low-scoring affair.
If you think the Browns will bounce back with a big offensive performance here, you should instead find an MKF offering where you take Browns overs and Jets unders.
Browns RB Nick Chubb and Jets QB Trevor Siemian
Over/Under 18.5 and 12.5 Fantasy Points
The Picks
- Nick Chubb under 18.5 fantasy points
- Trevor Siemian under 12.5 fantasy points
These plays match up nicely with a low-scoring island game. If the offenses struggle to move the ball and can’t get touchdowns on the board, the fantasy points could go to the kickers and receivers (via receptions in PPR). As previously mentioned, Chubb is 2/11 on surpassing 18.5 FPTS.
Although 12.5 for Siemian is under the projections of around 14FPTS, and is a very low number for QBs, he has only exceeded 12.5 in 11/25 games.
Many of those were as a starter on the Broncos just two years removed from Peyton Manning being the number one overall QB at the helm. If Siemian couldn’t do it as the starter in Denver, I strongly doubt his ability to perform any better for the Jets as a backup with no starts since 2017.
Picks Recap
- Nick Chubb under 18.5 fantasy points.
- Trevor Siemian under 12.5 fantasy points.
Also be sure to check out our favorite yardage props for Browns Jets as well.
