The Chiefs and the Colts meet at Arrowhead for what is the highest-totaled game of NFL Division Weekend, and we’re checking in on two of best prop bets for the clash.
KC enters the game as a 5.5-point favorite, hinting at a script which will have their offense dictating things from out in front. While that could mean big things for a chasing-the-game Andrew Luck, we’re pivoting to the other side of the ball for now, but you should definitely follow us on Twitter for any new picks.
Unfortunately for our collective blood pressure, we’re left with little choice but to go short on the over-valued Patrick Mahomes this week, so hold on tight.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
Under 25.5 Completions (-105)
As mentioned in our look at the week’s best head-to-head-prop bets, Mahomes’ passing lines always seem to be a bit juiced.
He averaged 23.9 completions in 2018, and in his first game of the new year, he hosts a defense allowing 24.3 completions per game.
Combine that with the fact that that Mahomes beat this number in just four of 16 appearances this year, I’m not sure why we’d be getting odds on the under.
The fact that the Chiefs defense is so much better at Arrowhead is working in our favor here — the unit gives up 16 fewer points per game at home than on the road (18 vs 34.6), somewhat reducing the need for any urgency on the part of the offense.
To be fair, that hasn’t mattered much to them, as Andy Reid’s offense tends to simply keep the foot on the gas. Still, this line is too high — since Week 5, Mahomes has gone under his completions total in nine of 12 games.
Even if the Colts buck expectations and turn this one into a shootout, the Chiefs propensity for big plays and short drives could work keep Mahomes’ passing volume down — despite leading the league in scoring by a good margin, KC ranks just 28th in time of possession.
The 25.5 number probably won’t move, but the price might, and I’d still play it to -115.
Chiefs RB Damien Williams
Over 3.5 Receptions (-114)
This same line is currently paying as poorly as -150 at other books, so grab this value if you can.
Williams had just one catch in a 35-3 beat down of the Raiders in Week 17, but in the three games leading up that, he caught 17 of the 18 targets sent his way for a 94% catch rate and a 5.7 reception average.
During that span, Williams ranked behind only Christian McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott in running back receptions.
While the Colts give up the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, only two teams have given up more receptions to opposing running backs, making that an obvious area for the Chiefs to attack.
- Including Lamar Miller’s eight-catch outing in the wildcard game, the Colts have given up at least four receptions to an RB in six of their last seven.
- On the season, they allow on average of 6.9 RB catches per game.
This price is almost certain to move and align with the higher juice currently being offered at other books. I’d still pay up to about -135 to make this wager.