- Our best Buccaneers Bears props for Thursday Night football focuses on the rushing attempt prop for Tampa Bay’s Ronald Jones
- The third-year RB out of USC is coming off a career-best game in rushing yards with 111
- The Bucs opened as -2.5 favorites and have moved to -5.5, despite worsening injury news
Jones is among the few healthy Bucs remaining on the offensive side of the ball. Playing on a short week as 5.5-point favorites, expect him to shoulder a heavy load in a bid to escape the Windy City with a win.
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Best Buccaneers Bears Props for TNF
Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones
At Least 16 Carries (-118 Prop Builder)
Note: If you don’t have the Prop Builder, or if this line moves past -130, pivot to rushing yards – good up to 72.5 yards – but I prefer targeting the volume/carries if possible. I expect DraftKings to release a Carries line today as well.
The list of knicked up and shelved Bucs is getting long:
- RB Leonard Fournette (Doubtful)
- RB LeSean McCoy (Out)
- WR Chris Godwin (Out)
- WR Justin Watson (Out)
- WR Mike Evans (Questionable, did not practice all week but expected to play)
- WR Scotty Miller (Questionable, DNP but expected to play)
And it’s not just injuries depleting their backfield — RB Kenjon Barner was this week suspended four games for PED use.
That literally leaves Jones and third-round rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn as their only active RBs, unless Fournette is somehow able to defy the odds and suit up.
Look, we have trust issues with head coach Bruce Arians too; he seems to revel in throwing us curveballs when it comes to backfield usage, but in this case, he’s left with no choice but to ride RoJo.
That’s what he did last week sans-Fournette, handing off to Jones 20 times despite trailing the Chargers for the majority of the game. Fournette also hit 17 carries in Week 1 while Fournette was still getting up to speed on the offense.
Jones hit a career-high 64% in snaps last week. Playing from ahead and with only one other active RB, I like his chances to set a new career-best in snaps again tonight.
The Matchup
The Bears maintain a fierce reputation on defense but have proven to be tame in the run game thus far:
- Surrendering the 19th-most rushing attempts to opponents (27.5/game)
- 16th in rushing yards/game allowed (115.0)
- 14th most opponent yards per carry (4.2)
All the while, they’ve been tough on opposing QBs, allowing the seventh-fewest completions per game (21) and ninth-fewest yards (230.2).
With Godwin out and Evans banged up, attacking the Bears on the ground makes a lot of sense.
Conclusion
Sixteen carries is no small number, but the Bucs just don’t have bodies in the backfield right now.
They’re averaging 25 rushing attempts per game on offense, and with the Bears allowing 27.5, it’s hard to assign Jones a median projection of less than 17, much less 16.
If the line moves, I would still take At Least 17 attempts but no further. After that, I would take the rushing yards instead.
