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Here are 12 of my best NFL season-long player props I made this off-season. Most of these lines should be reasonably available if you have enough outs and look hard enough, especially the first five picks.
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Five Bets on the Board That I Still Like (Available at multiple domestics)
- Devin Singletary Under 5.5 Rushing Touchdowns -115 (consensus)
- Bills added James Cook in the 2nd round, and there are reports that Zack Moss can steal some work and goal line carries as well. Josh Allen is also still there to steal some rushing TDs
2. Eli Mitchell Under 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns -165 (MGM) / Under 6.5 -125 (consensus)
- The 49ers added Tyrion Davis-Price in the 3rd round who is a bigger-bodied back, and Shanahan has talked about his concerns with Mitchell’s health. The 49ers also have Jeff Wilson for short-yardage, and potentially Trey Sermon who can both steal TDs, as well as Trey Lance. Mitchell has also been nursing a hamstring injury during camp
3. Jerry Jeudy Under 6.5 Receiving Touchdowns -120 (DK/MGM)
- Has never had as good of a QB as Russ Wilson, but he has to compete with Sutton, Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon, Albert O, and maybe even Dulcich for TDs. Even Hamler or Washington may be able to score a few deep TDs. Jeudy sets up as more of an intermediate receiver/chain-mover in this offense than a TD guy
4. Devonta Smith Under 875.5 Receiving Yards or 5.5 Receiving Touchdowns -115 (consensus)
- Eagles brought in AJ Brown in the offseason who has reportedly been dominant, and Smith has already banged up his groin in training camp. Soft tissue injuries this early on is usually a bad sign for the future
5. Cam Akers Under 8.5 Rushing Touchdowns -135 (DK/MGM)
- Akers really struggled during the playoffs in his return from the Achilles injury and has gotten injured in camp with a soft tissue injury. There has been plenty of chatter that the Rams will have more of a committee approach with Akers/Henderson. The Rams also ran a pass play at the fifth-highest rate in the Red Zone last year.
Bets That May or May Not Be Gone, Depending on Outs…
- Christian Watson Under 705.5 Receiving Yards -130
- Extremely raw rookie from the FCS and looked like he’ll start the season as the fourth WR behind Lazard, Watkins, and Cobb.
- He then had knee surgery and has been banged up for most of the training camp causing the emergence of Romeo Doubs
2. Antonio Gibson Under 875.5 Rushing Yards, -115 AND Under 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns -145
- Drafted Brian Robinson in the 3rd round. Ron Rivera initially compared the combo of Gibson/Robinson to DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart, which already indicated a timeshare and Robinson seems perfect for the short yardage role
- Gibson is now taking Special Teams snaps in preseason and is in the doghouse after fumbling, which has been a continuous issue for him throughout his career. Robinson seems entrenched as the RB1 to start the season
- As of 8/25/22 at 1:45 PM ET: it was reported that Gibson is going to be the team’s primary kick returner this year. That certainly does not seem good for his stock.
3. Miles Sanders Under 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns -140
- The Eagles backfield is going to be a headache once again with Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott stealing work. Jalen Hurts is also going to steal TDs
- Already has a banged-up hamstring in camp. Soft tissue injuries have a very high chance of re-injury throughout the season
4. Mike Gesicki Under 56.5 Receptions -125
- Dolphins added Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson, so there’s no way Gesicki can repeat his 112-target season from last year. He’s playing inline TE this year instead of being a big-bodied WR and has admitted he’s learning a new position this season. Has not seen many targets in camp.
5. Russell Gage Under 750.5 Receiving Yards -115 and Under 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns -115
- I bet this as soon as I read that Godwin was practicing and then Julio Jones signed with TB like 10 minutes later. But there is increased target competition and now he’s been missing training camp with a banged-up hamstring.
6. David Montgomery Under 925.5 Rushing Yards -115 and Under 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns -140
- The Bears offense will likely be one of the worst in the league and they have a bad offensive line. A lot of talks about a timeshare with Khalil Herbert and potentially Ebner mixing in. He also got banged up in camp with an undisclosed injury and has seen special teams reps in camp, which is unheard of for a supposed bellcow RB.
