All eyes will be on Anthony Davis and his points prop tonight in the Lakers vs. Celtics game. Davis has been on a scoring tear recently, but can he continue this success against the Celtics’ defense, which has shown strength against centers and in the paint?
Let’s jump in.
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Anthony Davis Under 27.5 Points (-113 FanDuel)
Davis has been on a tear recently and is averaging 27.7 points per game in 33.6 minutes on the year.
Tonight, he faces a Celtics team that is conceding the seventh-fewest points per game to centers and the eighth-fewest points in the paint, where Davis scores 94% of his points.
The Celtics will be without Al Horford, but they have actually held their own against centers in his absence. In the eight games without Horford, they have limited starting centers to an average of 7.3 points per game. While none of those players are as offensively dominant as Davis, the Celtics have shown that they can hold their own in the paint. Robert Williams is listed as questionable for the game, which could further boost the Celtics’ frontcourt defense.
Davis has been shooting incredibly well from the field. Over his past 11 games (excluding injuries), he has been making 65.2% of his shots on 17.5 attempts per game, shooting over 50% in every game during that span. In comparison, his first 11 games of the season saw him average 53.4% from the field, and he has a career average of 51.8%. His best shooting season to date was 53.5% in 2014-15.
Davis is due for a correction sooner rather than later.
The Celtics are also 5-0 on the second legs of back-to-back games this season and are expected to win tonight’s game, with a -4.0 point spread. If the Lakers lose, Davis has shown a significant drop in points, averaging 23.5 points per game in losses compared to 33.3 in wins. He has also gone under his points prop in every home loss this season, scoring 25 points or fewer in each game.
With all of this in mind, bettors should carefully consider the under on the points prop for Davis tonight.