Over the last few weeks, we’ve been taking you through each position and digging into the data to find the edges among the different types of NFL player props.
A recap of what we’ve learned so far:
- WRs hit the over on the prop betting line more than any skill position, though still not enough to make it a good bet.
- The QB market is the most efficient, but there’s still one QB prop hitting 61.2% historically
- RB NFL player props are wildly inefficient
- Don’t bet props that are heavily juiced
Now let’s take a look at TEs, a betting market that rivals RBs when it comes to inefficiency, making it a position we should be focusing on.
TEs: Mostly Bad and Often Injured
While no position in football beats RBs when it comes to injuries, TEs are close — they report the second-highest injury rate of any position at 4.9%, just behind RBs at 5.2%.
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So it’s no surprise that these two positions are the bottom of the barrel when betting overs. In fact, before accounting for bet type or home-road splits, TEs are the worst overall bet to hit the over, coming in at 40.9% compared to 41.9% for RBs.
Here’s how it looks broken down by prop type and home/away.
Takeaways
- We’ll get look into the specifics on those striking home-road splits in a moment, but we can see that it is a significant factor at the position, as they hit the over 3.1% more often at home than away. .
- Overall, betting unders on the position is plainly the way to go. Over a solid sample of 1,167 prop bets over the past two years, unders cash at an incredible 59.1%.
- Efficiency props have a slight edge over volume props, with yardage lines hitting the over about 1.4% more often than receptions.
There’s No Place Like Home
Things polarize even more when we break down each prop by TEs who are home (H) or visiting (V).
Takeaways
- Those volume woes get even worse on the road with receptions overs hitting at a woeful 38.8%.
- Conversely, one of the best NFL player props we can make across all positions is the under on receptions any time a TE is away from home.
- Reception Yards unders on visiting TEs are also a great bet historically at 60.1%.
- If you absolutely must bet the over on a TE, make sure he’s at home and lean towards the yardage total over receptions.
Conclusion
This is a straightforward exercise which we’ll continue to expand upon throughout the season, but the results are telling nonetheless.
By now it should be obvious that we need a compelling reason to bet any over in any situation, and that’s especially true when it comes to TEs. They’re injured too often and are rarely a consistent part of the game plan, making them an ideal target for building your bankroll with boring unders.
