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3M Open Best Bets: Lucas Glover vs Harris English

The PGA is back in full swing and it’s time to break down one of my 3M Open Best Bets for this weekend’s tournament in Minneapolis.

The Tour is heading out to TPC Twin Cities, a Par 72 that plays just over 7,160 yards. The course features:

  • Bentgrass greens
  • 74 bunkers
  • 27 water hazards

We’ve seen this course just once before, so books don’t have much course history to price into the odds this week.

Harris English is sitting at -109 at Pinnacle or -114 at DK in his matchup against Lucas Glover (-107). Let’s check the numbers.  

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Tale of the Tape

Since the start of 2020, English has outperformed Glover in every possible Strokes Gained metric.

  • On a per round basis, English gains 0.5 more strokes tee-to-green
  • He gains an additional 0.6 strokes putting

It’s important to understand how much of a difference that is over the course of a tournament. Essentially, if both golfers make the cut you’re talking about a difference of nearly five strokes across those four rounds. 

Head to Head History

They’ve played just over 350 rounds in the same field and on the same day over the course of their careers. English comes out on top in more than 52% of their common rounds which would push his odds closer to the -130 range.

More recently, English holds the edge, too. He’s 13-9-1 against Glover in 2020. 

My Pick

Harris English over Lucas Glover (-109). My simulator has English at -137 in this matchup. 

I see plenty of value in this H2H and would play it all the way down to -120.  

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