- We’ll tee up three player props for Titans Bills on Tuesday Night football, featuring AJ Brown, Jonnu Smith, and Dawson Knox
- This is the first Tuesday night football game since 2010 and just the second since 1946
- The Bills visit the Covid-ravaged Titans as 3.5-point favorites in a game with a 51.5 total
We’re giving you a little bonus coverage when it comes to props for Titans Bills tonight. Consider these plays “leans” for a half-unit each (0.5% of your total betting bankroll).
We actually have two official plays locked in for our subscribers already, but those were some bad lines that were gone quickly. If you find value in having the sharpest prop bettors in the industry watching markets for you around the clock, join us here.
We’re 4-1 on free plays over the last few weeks after a loss on MNF, so let’s stay hot with these three leans.
Titans TE Jonnu Smith
Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-112 @ DraftKings)
Smith is in line for a bigger role with so many sick and injured Titans pass-catchers, but unfortunately, we’re not catching bookmakers off-guard with that news. Smith’s receiving line has been set in the low-40s over the first few weeks, so this line of 50.5 has obviously been adjusted for the current reality:
- Corey Davis is out with Covid (6.3 targets/game)
- Adam Humphries is out with Covid (6.7 targets/game)
That’s 13 targets per game gone. Smith himself is averaging 6.7 targets (and 60.3 yards) per game, and tacking on at least two more targets to his workload is a reasonable projection.
The matchup is right, too — the Bills have allowed 89.8 yards/game to opposing TEs, by far the worst mark in the league.
Titans WR AJ Brown
Over 4.5 Receptions (-114 Prop Builder)
For all the same reasons I just mentioned, plus the fact that I’m ok with targeting a few more overs in what projects as a pace game.
Between them, the Bills and Titans average 69.5 plays per game, tied for the most on the Week 4 slate.
The Titans have shockingly run 70 offensive plays per game, third-most in the league. Obviously, the Titans will attempt to make this a Derrick Henry game, but they’re facing a Bills team that has been pushing the pace in all game scripts all season long.
Offenses facing the Bills have been forced into:
- The second-highest no-huddle rate (18%)
- The fourth-highest passing (65%)
- Eighth-fastest in seconds/snap (24.6)
Unless our game script gets way out of hand, chances are the Titans are going to have to open it up at some point, whether they like it or not, and they don’t have many good options other than Brown and Smith.
Bills TE Dawson Knox
Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-112 @ DK)
Note: We actually locked this in at Under 2.5 Receptions for our subscribers this morning, but that line was gone very quickly, so we suggest the yardage instead for a smaller bet. If you love always getting CLV and the best line, our community is the right one for you. We watch prop markets 24/7 to make sure our clients always get the best look.
Knox is stuck in a three-way TE committee in an offense that doesn’t target the TE much anyway.
Knox has collected exactly three targets in each of his first three games, failing to hit three receptions in any of them. In his first game back from a concussion last week, he ran just 12 routes on 48% snaps.
His 8% share of team targets ranks 47th among all TEs with at least one target, and while this bet comes with some variance, his median result is going to be closer to 15 yards.