- Our top NBA prop predictions for tonight come from Monday’s six-game slate
- We’ll break down two NBA props, telling you how to play Nikola Jokic, and Jonas Valanciunas
- You can get our full slate of daily NBA props FREE until August 6th — details after the pick
Today’s restart slate is a larger one, so we’ve got plenty to choose from. I’ll kick things off by asking — can Nikola Jokic hit the over on his PRA total as the Nuggets continue without a trio of key players for the second-straight game?
My best NBA prop plays in this space are now 4-1 on the restart after a 2-0 start on opening day and a solid 2-1 Friday. Let’s stay hot.
We’ve also got MLB K props teed up for tonight too — check it out here.
NBA Prop Predictions for Tonight (3/8)
Nuggets Center Nikola Jokic
Over 38.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115 @ Prop Builder)
The Nuggets are expected to be without three key players versus the Thunder — Will Barton, Gary Harris, and Jamal Murray. With them, Jokic was the top-scoring, rebounding, and passer on the team, and without them, his usage rate skyrockets.
Jokic has averaged 30 points, 10.5 rebounds, and eight assists per game in two meetings with the Thunder this season. He’s had their number in 34.4 minutes per game (MPG) and recorded 54 PRA in the first meeting and 44 in their second. Jokic has shot a combined 79.3% from the field versus OKC. On the season, he’s making 52.1%, the second-highest of his career.
- In his last five meetings with Oklahoma City, Jokic averages 28.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 7.8 assists
- When Jokic plays 30-39 minutes in 2019-20, he averages 22 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 7.4 assists in 49 contests
- When Jokic plays 40+ minutes in his career, he averages 28.1 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 6.3 assists
If he can exceed 30 minutes and the Nuggets can keep it competitive, he’s a lock to have a great all-around game. His last five games have been so dominant versus the Thunder, and considering the lack of offensive options for the Nuggets now, Jokic is likely to be leading scorer and rebounder.
Grizzlies Center Jonas Valanciunas
Over 13.5 Points (-152 @ DraftKings)
Over 14.5 (-116 @ Prop Builder) is also fine.
Valanciunas and the Grizzlies are playing their first back-to-back of the bubble after Saturday’s loss to the Spurs.
In eight games with no rest, Valanciunas averages 16.4 points and 11.5 rebounds in 27.5 MPG. On the season, he’s averaging 26.1 MPG. In his game against the Spurs, he recorded 28 minutes to follow up his 14-minute performance in his bubble opener due to foul trouble.
In two meetings with the Pelicans, Valanciunas has averaged 16 points and 9.5 rebounds, totaling 26 and 28 combined points and rebounds in both games. Projections have Valanciunas at 15.8 points in 27 minutes, right around his averages for back-to-backs.
- When Valanciunas plays 20-29 minutes, he averages 13.9 points per game in 46 contests
- When Valanciunas plays 30-39 minutes, he averages 19.5 points per game in 13 contests
- Versus the Pelicans, he’s averaged 14.2 PPG in their last four, is dragged down by a two-point performance
The Pelicans allowed Rudy Gobert 14 points and 12 rebounds in the first game of the bubble, with three different LA Clippers recording at least six rebounds, including Ivica Zubac who had a team-high nine in 24 minutes. Valanciunas is next in line to cause the Pelicans interior trouble.
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