Monday night’s game between the LA Rams and KC Chiefs is the highest-totaled game in NFL history (64), you know the player prop betting lines are going to be coming in hot and high as well.
Indeed, we’re seeing insane lines like 325 passing yards for Patrick Mahomes, 320 for Jared Goff, 90.5 receiving yards from Tyreek Hill, and 105 rushing yards from Todd Gurley.
Those are some of the highest lines we’ve seen all season, and betting the over on them is a tough proposition.
In a game like this, my preferred plan of attack is find any lines on lesser-known players that may be too low and bet the over. There aren’t a ton of those, but this first pick certainly applies.
Week 11 has been a solid one so far, as we sport an 11-8 record and need just 168 yards from Jared Goff to go 12-8.
Rams TE Gerald Everett
Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The removal of Cooper Kupp (ACL) from the lineup frees up seven targets per game for the Rams. And while Everett didn’t take advantage of that in Kupp’s Weeks 7-8 absence, his role has been trending upwards regardless.
- Over his last six games, the sophomore TE is averaging 21.3 yards on three targets per game.
- He’s eclipsed this 19.5 mark in four of his last six.
Those numbers alone don’t inspire a ton of confidence, but the match up is alluring in what should be a track meet.
- The Chiefs allow 70 TE yards per game, third most in the league.
- They’ve been burned by nondescript names like Jesse James (138 yards), Niles Paul (65), Jeff Heuerman (57), and Matt LaCosse (29).
- In all, they’ve allowed 11 different TEs to hit 20 yards or more in their 10 games.
If the game plays out at the fevered-pace anticipated, Everett should see a minimum of three targets against a burnable KC unit.
Rams RB Todd Gurley
Over 4.5 Receptions (-155)
The uber stud is averaging 4.8 receptions per game on 5.8 targets over the last month and could also pick up some of the extra work left behind by Kupp.
But again, we’re mostly targeting the KC defense, which has given up the second-most receptions to enemy backs at 7.5 per game. Their 70.3 yards per game allowed also ranks second worst, making the over on receiving yards a tempting play if you’d rather go that way.
Melvin Gordon and David Johnson, cut from the same cloth as Gurley, put up nine and seven receptions against the Chiefs already this year.
Rams QB Jared Goff
Under 9.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
A pretty straightforward play here:
- Goff is averaging 8.2 rush yards per game; he’s gone under this mark in four of his last five games, and six of 10 overall.
- The Chiefs allow 8.1 QB rush yards per game, third fewest in the league.
- Betting the under QB rushing yards against KC would have netted you a 6-3 record this year.
- Betting the under on Goff rushing yards would’ve resulted in a 3-2 record.
The status of Sammy Watkins remains unclear as of this morning, and we may add more on the KC side closer to kickoff.